Forget technical analysis: here’s a no BS system to beat the market

Chris: I started investing something I call observational investing or social investing which is really all it is is trying to detect change in the world whether it's change in technological development or change in culture change in consumer behavior but you're trying to detect change and you're trying to connect that change uh connect the dots to companies that would either benefit or be harmed by that change.

Chris: So you you have a thesis that you come up with that there is some new information that is likely to positively impact this company or this sector that the market is not aware of yet or that the market underappreciates. Now you have to ask yourself to what extent is this a needle mover for this company... the exit window is when other people come to terms with this information, right? When other people start to appreciate this information that you found that you traded on, as soon as that information becomes public... that's the point of information parody and that's when we exit the trade. So you basically initiate an observational social orb trade at the point of information imbalance when you find some information that is impactful that the world doesn't know about yet and you exit that investment as the world starts to appreciate that information. The bottom line is you're trading a thesis. Your thesis revolves around one piece of information. And when that information gets widely disseminated to other investors, then you no longer have an information advantage. Therefore, you should be exiting that trade.

Chris: I just think it's the company that is best positioned in the world to benefit from the upcoming AI efficiency wave, which is once we actually start to see meaningful productivity jumps from the AI age. Uh, there's no company in the world that's going to benefit more from that than Amazon. I also think they are the nucleus of AI infrastructure. They are a chip company, right? Their tranium, their chips alone, their tranium AI chips are generating like $50 billion of revenue this next year. They are one of the largest infrastructure data center companies in the entire world. And their AWS platform and everything that they've constructed in cloud computing over the past 15 plus years sits at the center of this architecture infrastructure for AI. On top of that, Amazon is the third largest digital advertising company in the world. So as AI makes advertising meaningfully more efficient and targeted and effective, Amazon is at the center of that wave. They are making the biggest capex investment of any company in the world by a big margin in AI. And the world is still unsure about how this is going to play out. I'm not unsure. I'm willing to bet it all.