Video · 2026-08-05 · 9m · 5 moments

The Future is Metal - Mariana Minerals | a16z American Dynamism

✦ AI generated

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Claim◆

The entire modern economy is underpinned on metals and minerals, and everything we interact with in the physical world is either mined or grown

Turner Caldwell opens by framing critical minerals as the bedrock of the physical economy, arguing that everything from laptops to AI data centers and cars ultimately comes from mined, not grown, materials.

transcript

Turner Caldwell: Everything that we interact with in the physical world is either mined or it's grown. And unfortunately, we can't grow metals. Whether it's a laptop, whether it's a cell phone, whether it's an AI data center, whether it is a robot, whether it's a battery, whether it's a car, all of that stuff comes from the ground. The entire modern economy is underpinned on metals and minerals.

Claim◆

The US fell meaningfully behind in mineral production, and over 90% of the critical minerals we use are now refined in China, creating a dangerous over-reliance

Caldwell describes how the US went from a top producer of lithium and copper to a position of dependence, noting that over 90% of critical mineral refining now happens in China — a recent and fast transition.

transcript

Turner Caldwell: 50 years ago, 60 years ago, we made a lot of these metals in the US. We were one of the largest producers of lithium. We were one of the largest producers of copper. And then 30 years ago, maybe a little bit longer, there was this meaningful shift away from making these metals ourselves. ... We didn't just lose the capability, we actually fell meaningfully behind. Over 90% of the critical minerals we use are refined in China today, which is kind of wild to imagine given that that was a very fast transition just over the last several decades. Having an over reliance on any single geographic player reduces our ability to have self-determination and control of our own destiny.

explains mechanism · 1gives example · 1provides context · 1

Claim

Because these are physical inputs, without the literal units of material you physically cannot build anything, and national security depends on them

Caldwell makes the argument that unlike intangible national-security issues, minerals are physical — if you don't have the units, you simply cannot build, and in an increasingly contested world, hard power matters.

transcript

Turner Caldwell: Obviously, there are many things that matter in national security. Some of them are intangible, but these are very physical. And if you don't have the literal units you need to make something, you physically can't make it. And you know, we've seen an increasingly developed coast world, hard power does matter a lot. And so, if you can't get what you need to build things, you can't build them in a very obvious sense.

explains mechanism · 1

Claim◆

The core thesis of Mariana is that western minerals companies have lost the ability to deploy capital effectively, and the answer is a vertically integrated, software-first mining and refining company

Caldwell explains Mariana's founding thesis: metals are the biggest bottleneck in the intermediate supply chain, and no one has applied modern technology holistically to the minerals industry, drawing a parallel to what Tesla and SpaceX did for their sectors.

transcript

Turner Caldwell: I started working on manufacturing equipment with our battery cell providers. And when you start working on kind of like the intermediate supply chain, you start to realize that the metals are the things that are actually driving past and are probably the biggest bottleneck. ... if you look at the big industrial sectors, you have automotive and Tesla took that on. You have the space industry and SpaceX took that on and there's this minerals industry that no one has yet really taken today's modern technologies and applied it holistically to the industry. The core thesis of the company is that western minerals companies have lost the ability to effectively deploy capital in order to mine and refine the critical minerals and minerals that we need to power the modern economy. The only way to actually address that is you have to be a vertically integrated software first minerals mining and refining company.

provides context · 3

Mechanism

Mariana OS is software that drives fundamental behavior change — giving every person leverage rather than replacing people

Caldwell describes the purpose of Mariana OS as leverage, not replacement — solving thousands of small operational paper cuts daily to let a small team do much more with less.

transcript

Turner Caldwell: The real magic of Mariana's product is that it's software that drives fundamental behavior change. It's not software for software's sake, but it's software that solves every single one of those tiny paper cuts a thousand times a day across a thousand different people. The purpose of Mariana OS is not to replace people. It is to give them leverage and to give them an expanded impact. Basically how do we make a really small talented team do much more with a lot less. And software and machine learning is the way to do that. It's the only way to do that.

Highlight slides

The bedrock of the physical economy✦ from: The entire modern economy is underpinned on metals and minerals, and everything we interact with in the physical world is either mined or grown Mined, not grown✦ from: The entire modern economy is underpinned on metals and minerals, and everything we interact with in the physical world is either mined or grown The US fell meaningfully behind in mineral production✦ from: The US fell meaningfully behind in mineral production, and over 90% of the critical minerals we use are now refined in China, creating a dangerous over-reliance Over 90% of critical mineral refining is now in China✦ from: The US fell meaningfully behind in mineral production, and over 90% of the critical minerals we use are now refined in China, creating a dangerous over-reliance Mariana's Founding Thesis✦ from: The core thesis of Mariana is that western minerals companies have lost the ability to deploy capital effectively, and the answer is a vertically integrated, software-first mining and refining company The Answer: Vertical Integration✦ from: The core thesis of Mariana is that western minerals companies have lost the ability to deploy capital effectively, and the answer is a vertically integrated, software-first mining and refining company

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