The US fell meaningfully behind in mineral production, and over 90% of the critical minerals we use are now refined in China, creating a dangerous over-reliance
Caldwell describes how the US went from a top producer of lithium and copper to a position of dependence, noting that over 90% of critical mineral refining now happens in China — a recent and fast transition. ✦ AI generated
Turner Caldwell · a16z Podcast · 2026-08-05 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 0:33
50 years ago, 60 years ago, we made a lot of these metals in the US. We were one of the largest producers of lithium. We were one of the largest producers of copper. And then 30 years ago, maybe a little bit longer, there was this meaningful shift away from making these metals ourselves. ... We didn't just lose the capability, we actually fell meaningfully behind. Over 90% of the critical minerals we use are refined in China today, which is kind of wild to imagine given that that was a very fast transition just over the last several decades. Having an over reliance on any single geographic player reduces our ability to have self-determination and control of our own destiny.
verbatim transcript · starts at 0:33
0:3350 years ago, 60 years ago, we made a lot of these metals in the US. We were one of the largest producers of lithium. We were one of the largest producers [music] of copper. And then 30 years ago, maybe a little bit longer, there was this meaningful shift away from making these metals ourselves. We need to mine more copper in the next 15 years [music] than we have in all of human
0:53history since the Bronze Age. There's a lot of worry about that, but there's no clear reaction by the western [music] mining companies in particular to actually go do it. >> We didn't just lose the capability, we actually fell meaningfully behind. [music] >> Over 90% of the critical minerals we use are refined in China today, which is kind of wild to imagine [music] given that that was a very fast
1:13transition just over the last several decades. Having an over reliance on any [music] single geographic player reduces our ability to have self-determination [music] and control of our own destiny. >> Obviously, there are many things that matter in [music] national security. Some of them are intangible, but these are very physical. And if you don't have the literal units you need to make something, you physically can't make it.
1:34And you know, we've seen [music] an increasingly developed coast world, hard power does matter a lot. And so, if you can't get what you need [music] to build things, you can't build them in a very obvious sense. My name is Turner Caldwell. I'm the CEO of Mariana Minerals. [music] From San Francisco originally, went to Stanford. Mechanical engineering background and then spent about a decade at Tesla. I
- ·60 years ago, the US was a top lithium and copper producer
- ·A shift away from domestic production began ~30 years ago
- ·The US lost capability and fell behind, not just paused
- ·Over 90% of critical minerals used in the US are refined in China
- ·This transition happened fast, over just the last several decades
- ·Creates a dangerous over-reliance on a single geographic player