Audio · 2026-05-14 · 38m · 24 moments

Pax Silica: Inside the Trump Administration’s Tech Strategy with US Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg

Securing AI dominance requires more than just semiconductors; it demands a complete overhaul of how the West manages everything that goes into them, from rare earth minerals to actuators. Enter: Pax Silica. Sarah Guo and Elad Gil sit down with US Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg to discuss the launch and expansion of Pax Silica, a 14-country economic security coalition designed to secure the entire AI supply chain. Jacob talks about the creation of a forward-deployed i ✦ AI generated

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GUEST Jacob Helberg HOST Sarah Guo HOST Elad Gil

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Claim◆

America's superpower is its private sector, not government-run supply chains, so Pax Silica adopts a product-centric approach where commercially viable platforms built by private companies serve as instruments of foreign policy, in direct contrast to China's state-owned Belt and Road model.

Helberg contrasts the U.S. strategy with China's Belt and Road Initiative: the U.S. puts private companies in the driver's seat to build commercially viable platforms, while China uses state-owned enterprises and debt-trap diplomacy. The failure of Belt and Road is central planning waste, cost overruns, and debt that converts to Chinese equity on default.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: We're not going to do government-operated supply chains because that's not how we shine as a country. Our superpower is really our private sector and our companies. The old Steve Jobs quote that American products enchant and delight users around the world by the billions, that really is our edge as a country. And so the answer has been trying to work in lockstep with our private companies and our builders to build platforms that are commercially viable and that can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. Whenever you have central planning and really government bureaucrats effectively allocating large pools of capital, there's a lot of waste because vendors massively overcharge things. There's a lot of waste because there's a lot of roads to nowhere. And what happens is, China will basically deploy capital to its own companies that then basically write IOUs to the host country... when a host country thinks it's taking on X million dollars in liabilities and it actually ends up being 10x that, that's when they kind of end up in quicksand. And so we're approaching it totally differently. And because we're approaching it by putting our companies in the driver's seat, it's actually, in a lot of ways, it's much more ethical because the deal is structured in a way that's really meant to be a true joint venture and one that will be optimized for commercial viability, not just for political purposes.

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Definition

The AI supply chain extends far beyond semiconductors to include thousands of inputs like precision reducers, servo motors, rare earth magnets, and actuators, and the U.S. faces extreme concentration risk on virtually all of them.

Helberg argues that the AI supply chain is far broader than chips alone, encompassing thousands of components where the U.S. is critically dependent on China.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: Right now, when we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and servo motors and rare earth magnets and actuators. And our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs.

gives example · 1

Definition◆

Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach.

Helberg introduces Pax Silica as a 14-country economic security coalition focused on securing the AI supply chain via an ecosystems-based approach, and details the first major project: a forward-deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of State Department-held diplomatic property.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: So I gave a speech at the Hudson Institute that was really meant to be our blueprint for PaxSilica. PaxSilica is an economic security coalition that now has 14 countries. And the idea is really to have an ecosystems-based approach to our supply chains and specifically the AI supply chain. And in my speech at Hudson, I outlined our different lines of efforts, including our policy roadmaps and our projects. And about a week and a half ago, we basically did the first big, you know, what would be the tech equivalent of a product rollout where we announced a forward deployed industrial base with our oldest ally in Asia, the Philippines. We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres, which is obviously very substantial. It's 1/3 of the size of Manhattan, to do a very large industrial build out that's one of a kind that helps combine the predictability and certainty of the American common law system with the industrial comparative advantages that the Philippines offers. And the goal is really to secure inputs that are vital for our supply chains.

explains mechanism · 1provides context · 1

Claim◆

Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, starting with a forward deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of State Department-controlled land.

Helberg introduces Pax Silica as a 14-country economic security coalition and describes the first major project: a 4,000-acre forward deployed industrial base in the Philippines, structured as a two-phase plan with State Department custody followed by long-term private investment.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: PaxSilica is an economic security coalition that now has 14 countries. And the idea is really to have an ecosystems-based approach to our supply chains and specifically the AI supply chain. ... about a week and a half ago, we basically did the first big, you know, what would be the tech equivalent of a product rollout where we announced a forward deployed industrial base with our oldest ally in Asia, the Philippines. We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres, which is obviously very substantial. It's 1/3 of the size of Manhattan. ... The first phase is the State Department taking into custody the zone. ... right now it's actually diplomatic property that is effectively, you know, governed by the same laws as our embassies are. Phase 2 will be the long-term development and build out of the land. And so we are going to spend, we have two years, a two-year window to negotiate the details with our Filipino counterparts on the investor protections that will apply to the land, the taxation regimes, and all of the different legal safeguards that investors will be able to benefit from for the long term.

Definition◆

PaxSilica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, not just semiconductors.

Jacob Helberg introduces PaxSilica as a 14-country coalition announced at the Hudson Institute, taking an ecosystems-based approach to AI supply chain security, not limited to chips.

transcript

Mechanism◆

The Pax Silica coalition is launching a forward-deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of land — a State Department economic security zone that combines American legal protections with Filipino manufacturing advantages to secure critical supply chain inputs.

Helberg describes the Philippines industrial base as the coalition's first major rollout: the State Department takes the land into custody as diplomatic property, then a two-year negotiation window establishes long-term investor protections for private companies to build out manufacturing.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: About a week and a half ago, we basically did the first big, you know, what would be the tech equivalent of a product rollout where we announced a forward deployed industrial base with our oldest ally in Asia, the Philippines. We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres, which is obviously very substantial. It's 1/3 of the size of Manhattan. The first phase is the State Department taking into custody the zone. We are referring to it as an economic security zone because it is a very unique type of arrangement. The State Department has authorities to take in land and property into custody, sort of how foreign governments gift the State Department counselors and consulates and embassies. Phase 2 will be the long-term development and build out of the land. And so we are going to spend, we have two years, a two-year window to negotiate the details with our Filipino counterparts on the investor protections that will apply to the land, the taxation regimes, and all of the different legal safeguards that investors will be able to benefit from for the long term.

Fact◆

The US is establishing an economic security zone in the Philippines — 4,000 acres, 1/3 the size of Manhattan — as a forward-deployed industrial base, taking the land into State Department custody initially, then negotiating a long-term investment framework within two years.

Helberg details the two-phase plan: the State Department takes the 4,000-acre zone into custody as diplomatic property, followed by a two-year negotiation window for investor protections, tax regimes, and a multi-decade framework.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: We made this arrangement with them where they are granting us 4,000 acres, which is obviously very substantial. It's 1/3 of the size of Manhattan, to do a very large industrial build out that's one of a kind that helps combine the predictability and certainty of the American common law system with the industrial comparative advantages that the Philippines offers. And the goal is really to secure inputs that are vital for our supply chains. Right now there are two phases to the plan. The first phase is the State Department taking into custody the zone. We are referring to it as an economic security zone because it is a very unique type of arrangement. The State Department has authorities to take in land and property into custody, sort of how foreign governments gift the State Department counselors and consulates and embassies. So right now it's actually diplomatic property that is effectively governed by the same laws as our embassies are. Phase 2 will be the long-term development and build out of the land. And so we have a two-year window to negotiate the details with our Filipino counterparts on the investor protections that will apply to the land, the taxation regimes, and all of the different legal safeguards that investors will be able to benefit from for the long term. And the goal is within that two-year window to actually have a long-term framework that will be multiple decades.

provides context · 1

Claim

The AI supply chain includes thousands of inputs beyond chips — precision reducers, servo motors, rare earth magnets, actuators — and US concentration risk is incredibly high for all of them, with the robotics supply chain completely dominated by China.

Helberg explains that the AI supply chain is much broader than semiconductors, encompassing thousands of components like robotics parts where China has near-total dominance, and that the Philippines zone targets these gaps.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: When we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and servo motors and rare earth magnets and actuators. And our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs. The robotics supply chain, robotics is an incredibly promising industry that really is poised to change a lot of things in manufacturing as well as in people's daily lives. And the supply chain is right now completely dominated by China.

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Context

The AI supply chain includes thousands of inputs beyond semiconductors — like precision reducers, servo motors, rare earth magnets, and actuators — and U.S. concentration risk is critically high across all of them.

Helberg explains that the AI supply chain is far broader than just chips, encompassing thousands of physical inputs, and that the United States faces dangerously high concentration risk for almost all of them, which the Philippines partnership aims to address through its existing manufacturing ecosystem.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The goal is really to actually test a concept that could potentially be replicable. I mean, right now, when we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and servo motors and rare earth magnets and actuators. And our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs. And so the goal is to identify key geographies that actually have industrial strengths and bring unique capabilities to the table that could actually help us move the needle meaningfully in different segments of the supply chain. The Philippines already has a native indigenous manufacturing ecosystem that's already quite deep. It's our oldest ally in Asia. So we have a very deep values alignment with the Philippines. And so we think that the nexus between the values alignment combined with their industrial advantages actually makes for a very compelling value proposition for a lot of companies.

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Claim

The US approach to supply chain security is fundamentally different from China's Belt and Road Initiative — instead of using government-operated, state-owned enterprises, America works in lockstep with private companies to build commercially viable platforms.

Helberg contrasts the US product-centric, private-sector-driven approach with China's Belt and Road model of state-owned enterprises and government-operated infrastructure projects, arguing the latter creates debt traps and waste.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The Belt and Road Initiative is a very, very large foreign policy project of the Chinese government that basically involved using state-owned enterprises that are essentially extensions of the government to carry out massive infrastructure projects overseas. And fundamentally, what it was state-owned enterprises, building government-operated railways, government-built roads and bridges. And the Chinese government, by virtue of its system, really built all of this in-house, which for us, when we think about how should we want to secure our supply chains, we need to make a lot of investments that touch upon these kinds of industrial capabilities. But as Americans, we're not going to do this in-house inside of the government. The answer has been trying to work in lockstep with our private companies and our builders to build platforms that are commercially viable and that can ultimately live outside of the government as a private service. And so the forward deployed industrial base is meant to be a platform for private investment that will be viable for the long term.

provides context · 2

Context

The AI supply chain is not just chips — it includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers, servo motors, rare earth magnets, and actuators, and the U.S. has extreme concentration risk for almost all of them, with China dominating the robotics supply chain in particular.

Helberg expands the definition of the AI supply chain far beyond semiconductors, listing specific mechanical components where the U.S. is dangerously dependent on China, and identifies robotics as a key area for investment.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: when we think about the AI supply chain, a lot of people just think of chips, but the reality is that the AI supply chain actually includes thousands of inputs like precision reducers and servo motors and rare earth magnets and actuators. And our concentration risk as a country is incredibly high for basically all of those inputs. ... the robotics supply chain, robotics is an incredibly promising industry that really is poised to change a lot of things in manufacturing as well as in people's daily lives. And the supply chain is right now completely dominated by China.

provides context · 1

Claim◆

America's competitive edge is its private sector and product-centric culture, not government-operated supply chains, so Pax Silica's approach is to build commercially viable platforms with private companies rather than replicating China's state-owned enterprise model.

Helberg contrasts the American approach to supply chain security with China's Belt and Road Initiative, arguing that the U.S. should leverage its private sector and product-centric culture rather than replicating state-owned enterprise models.

transcript

explains mechanism · 1provides context · 1

Mechanism◆

The Belt and Road Initiative failed because government-operated central planning creates waste and debt traps, whereas the U.S. approach puts private companies in the driver's seat to build commercially viable platforms.

Helberg contrasts China's Belt and Road Initiative — which he argues created debt traps through state-owned enterprises overcharging for infrastructure projects — with the U.S. approach of leveraging private sector companies to build commercially viable, product-centric platforms that create genuine win-win partnerships.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: Whenever you have central planning and really government bureaucrats effectively allocating large pools of capital, there's a lot of waste because vendors massively overcharge things. There's a lot of waste because there's a lot of roads to nowhere. And what happens is, China will basically deploy capital to its own companies that then basically write IOUs to the host country. And the host country realizes that these projects have gained a reputation for being in debt trap because China will say, we'll build a road as a loan, except the company building the road is Chinese. And so China can basically decide what the price is. ... We're approaching it totally differently. And because we're approaching it by putting our companies in the driver's seat, it's actually, in a lot of ways, it's much more ethical because the deal is structured in a way that's really meant to be a true joint venture and one that will be optimized for commercial viability, not just for political purposes.

Mechanism

The Belt and Road Initiative has failed because it is a debt-trap model of political leverage — state-owned enterprises inflate costs, host countries end up with liabilities far beyond what they expected, and the upside is not shared as a true partnership.

Helberg describes the failures of China's Belt and Road Initiative, arguing that state-owned enterprises overcharge, run over budget, and convert debt to equity — creating a debt-trap dynamic that Pax Silica is designed to avoid by putting private companies in the driver's seat.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: Whenever you have central planning and really government bureaucrats effectively allocating large pools of capital, there's a lot of waste because vendors massively overcharge things. There's a lot of waste because there's a lot of roads to nowhere. ... China will basically deploy capital to its own companies that then basically write IOUs to the host country ... the company building the road is Chinese. And so China can basically decide what the price is. ... when a host country thinks it's taking on X million dollars in liabilities and it actually ends up being 10x that, that's when they kind of end up in quicksand. ... the Belt and Road Initiative has really garnered a reputation for really being a tool of political leverage. ... we're approaching it totally differently. And because we're approaching it by putting our companies in the driver's seat, it's actually, you know, in a lot of ways, it's much more ethical because the deal is structured in a way that's really meant to be a true joint venture and one that will be optimized for commercial viability, not just for political purposes.

provides context · 2

Claim

The AI revolution is a non-zero-sum growth opportunity: partner countries can derive significant economic growth by taking a stake in the AI supply chain, because the tech pie grows fast enough that partnerships are win-win.

Helberg argues that AI is fueling over a third of U.S. GDP growth and driving record demand for copper, cobalt, and data center inputs globally. Because the pie is growing fast, countries that partner in the supply chain can share upside without it being zero-sum.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The amazing thing about the tech industry, especially when we go through these inflection points, as you guys know, is the pie grows really fast. And so it's really not zero sum, which actually makes it incredibly conducive to forge very mutually beneficial partnerships because we're not approaching it as, you know, what I gain, someone else loses. It's actually because the pie is growing, we're partnering together. And this is very much part of the ethos of how we're partnering with the Philippines. We are developing a partnership where we both have skin in the game and we both share in the upside of success. And so, ultimately, it's very much a win-win proposition.

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Prediction

The AI revolution is a non-zero-sum opportunity because the pie grows fast — partner countries can derive significant economic growth by having a stake in the AI supply chain at different layers, making partnerships mutually beneficial rather than extractive.

Helberg argues that the value proposition for partner countries is that the AI-driven economic pie is growing rapidly, so Pax Silica partnerships are win-win rather than zero-sum, with risk and upside shared equally.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: the AI revolution is leading to huge growth. ... AI being this incredible, incredibly strong economic force that is already fueling over 1/3 of our economic GDP growth right here in the US. ... If they find ways of actually having a bigger part and a bigger stake in that supply chain at different layers, layers that make sense for their companies and their economy, they can actually derive a lot of economic growth from that revolution. ... the amazing thing about the tech industry ... is the pie grows really fast. And so it's really not zero sum, which actually makes it incredibly conducive to forge very mutually beneficial partnerships. ... We are developing a partnership where we both have skin in the game and we both share in the upside of success. ... risk is evenly allocated and so is upside. ... Ultimately, it's very much a win-win proposition.

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Data

The AI revolution is creating a rapidly expanding economic pie, making supply-chain partnerships non-zero-sum and mutually beneficial for participating countries.

Helberg argues that because AI is fueling massive economic growth — already over a third of U.S. GDP growth — and driving record demand for inputs like copper and cobalt, the pie is growing so fast that supply chain partnerships are genuinely win-win rather than zero-sum.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The AI revolution is leading to huge growth. I mean, despite the volatility in the energy markets, the American economy has been proven incredibly resilient. And a big part of that is AI being this incredibly strong economic force that is already fueling over 1/3 of our economic GDP growth right here in the US. Overseas, we're seeing that growth translate to record demands for copper, record demands for cobalt, record demands for lots of different inputs that go into data centers and record demand for electricians and all the rest. And so the takeaway for a lot of these countries is if they find ways of actually having a bigger part and a bigger stake in that supply chain at different layers, they can actually derive a lot of economic growth from that revolution. Because the amazing thing about the tech industry, especially when we go through these inflection points, is the pie grows really fast. And so it's really not zero sum.

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Mechanism

The value proposition for partner countries in PaxSilica is that the AI revolution is fueling rapid economic growth with an expanding pie, allowing for genuinely win-win, mutually beneficial partnerships where risk and upside are shared.

Helberg argues that because AI creates massive growth — already fueling over a third of US GDP growth — and the tech industry's pie grows rapidly at inflection points, partnerships with countries like the Philippines can be truly positive-sum rather than zero-sum.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The value prop is, one of the amazing things that we're seeing is obviously the AI revolution is leading to huge growth. AI being this incredibly strong economic force that is already fueling over 1/3 of our economic GDP growth right here in the US. The amazing thing about the tech industry, especially when we go through these inflection points, as you guys know, is the pie grows really fast. And so it's really not zero sum, which actually makes it incredibly conducive to forge very mutually beneficial partnerships because we're not approaching it as what I gain, someone else loses. It's actually because the pie is growing, we're partnering together. We are developing a partnership where we both have skin in the game and we both share in the upside of success. Risk is evenly allocated and so is upside. Ultimately, it's very much a win-win proposition.

explains mechanism · 2

Mechanism

The U.S. must re-industrialize by narrowing the gap between its 20-30% share of global consumption and its much lower production share, which will require highly autonomous manufacturing.

Helberg explains that America consumes 20-30% of global output but produces far less, and closing that gap will drive re-industrialization that — given 4% unemployment — must be highly automated, a model Singapore has proven viable.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: America consumes, accounts for, somewhere in the neighborhood between 20 and 30% of global consumption on any given quarter. It's obviously huge because we're 4% of the world's population, but we're basically 1/4 to 1/3 of the world's total consumption. ... And our production levels are not 20 or 30%. We produce a lot less than that. And so part of what we're seeing is if we narrow the gap between what we consume and what we produce, we will re-industrialize America because that will be a massive re-industrialization plan that will inevitably include a lot of semi-autonomy or full autonomy. And because if we industrialize in an economy where unemployment's already at 4%, it will have to be very, very autonomous, which is possible. Singapore has proven that that's possible.

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Mechanism

The U.S. should re-industrialize by narrowing the gap between its 20-30% of global consumption and its much lower production, but this must be highly autonomous (given 4% unemployment), while using a hub-based approach with allies for other parts of the supply chain — and semiconductor fabs should stay in the U.S. because they are too capital-intensive and talent-constrained to replicate elsewhere.

Helberg lays out a strategic framework for deciding what gets built in the U.S. versus abroad: close the domestic consumption-production gap through autonomous re-industrialization, use a hub-based model for allies' comparative advantages, and keep advanced semiconductor fabs in the U.S. due to capital and talent intensity.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: America consumes, accounts for, somewhere in the neighborhood between 20 and 30% of global consumption on any given quarter. ... And our production levels are not 20 or 30%. We produce a lot less than that. ... If we narrow the gap between what we consume and what we produce, we will re-industrialize America ... if we industrialize in an economy where unemployment's already at 4%, it will have to be very, very autonomous, which is possible. ... part of the idea for the forward deployed industrial base and these economic security zones is actually to have a hub-based approach where we can leverage the industrial attributes ... help foster regional hubs. ... the effort to bring back semiconductor fab production here is already well underway. ... It's highly technical. The global supply of talent available in that area is very finite and limited. And it's also extremely capital intensive. So it wouldn't make sense to replicate that elsewhere before it's finished here.

explains mechanism · 1extends · 2

Mechanism

The U.S. should re-industrialize domestically by narrowing the gap between its 20-30% share of global consumption and its much lower share of production, while using a hub-based approach to distribute supply chain capacity across allied regions for non-core production.

Helberg explains that the U.S. consumes far more than it produces, and narrowing that gap means re-industrializing with autonomy (since unemployment is at 4%). Meanwhile, a hub-based approach leverages regional strengths — Philippines for manufacturing, Africa for rare earths — to build distributed, reliable supply chains for the other 70% of global consumption currently concentrated in China.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: America consumes somewhere in the neighborhood between 20 and 30% of global consumption on any given quarter. We're basically 1/4 to 1/3 of the world's total consumption. And our production levels are not 20 or 30%. We produce a lot less than that. If we narrow the gap between what we consume and what we produce, we will re-industrialize America because that will be a massive re-industrialization plan that will inevitably include a lot of semi-autonomy or full autonomy. And because if we industrialize in an economy where unemployment's already at 4%, it will have to be very, very autonomous. Part of the idea for the forward deployed industrial base and these economic security zones is actually to have a hub-based approach where we can leverage the industrial attributes. The effort to bring back semiconductor fab production here is already well underway. It wouldn't necessarily make sense to try to replicate that elsewhere because it's highly technical, the global supply of talent is very finite, and it's extremely capital intensive. But the supply chain is vast and there's a lot of things that still need to be built.

explains mechanism · 1gives example · 1supports · 1

Fact

Rare earth minerals are not that rare — the key bottlenecks are the energy cost of extraction at grade and the extremely limited number of refining and processing facilities outside China, which China heavily subsidizes.

Helberg clarifies the dynamics of rare earths: they are not scarce geologically, but the refining and processing infrastructure outside China is very limited, and China heavily subsidizes its industry. The administration is addressing this via critical mineral summits, MOU deals, and tackling pricing issues through international negotiations.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The really interesting thing about rare earths is obviously, as you point out, they're not that rare. I think the sort of key thing is that really drives the economics of those industries is how much energy do you need to pump into the ground in order to extract a given mineral at a given quality grade. And then what's actually really rare is the refining process, because the number of processing facilities for these minerals is very, very limited outside of China. They exist, but in very limited quantities. And you're right, and China obviously subsidizes the hell out of them. The Trump administration's actually really had a very, very comprehensive approach. We did the largest critical minerals summit in the history of the State Department on February 4th, with over 55 countries that participated, we signed critical mineral MOU deals with dozens of countries who have lots of different kinds of minerals. The administration is hard at work at negotiating deals with countries to address the pricing issue. Because a lot of the economics of whether a company can be viable is really based on the price that company is able to provide a service for. And so the pricing mechanism is really, really central to unlocking long-term commercial viability.

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Fact

The Trump administration is pursuing a comprehensive two-sided critical minerals strategy — on the supply side through the largest State Department minerals summit allocating capital to expand production, and on the demand side through deals to fix the pricing mechanism to ensure long-term commercial viability.

Helberg outlines the dual approach: on supply, the administration held the largest critical minerals summit in State Department history with 55+ countries and signed dozens of MOUs, allocating capital to expand production. On demand, they are negotiating pricing deals because commercial viability depends on price. He expresses confidence the pricing issue will be resolved before the end of the administration.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: The Trump administration's actually really had a very comprehensive approach. We've been really focused on the mineral security issue pretty much since day one of the administration. We did the largest critical minerals summit in the history of the State Department. On February 4th, with over 55 countries that participated, we signed critical mineral MOU deals with dozens of countries. On the supply side, we've been aggressively pursuing allocating capital and investments into a lot of these projects to make sure that they have access to the resources to expand production. On the demand side, the administration is hard at work at negotiating deals with countries to address the pricing issue. The pricing mechanism is really central to unlocking long-term commercial viability. And I'm incredibly confident that we actually will resolve the pricing issue for the minerals market before the end of this administration.

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Prediction

The U.S. government wants venture capital as a signal partner to assess execution risk in critical mineral and supply-chain investments, because VCs are uniquely good at evaluating founder capability beyond what a spreadsheet shows.

Helberg says the administration wants the VC ecosystem to help identify the best operators in critical mineral and supply chain projects, because VCs are wired to judge execution ability and personality attributes of founders — information the government can use to allocate capital more efficiently.

transcript

Jacob Helberg: You guys have such an important role to play, mainly because so much of whether a project materializes or not hinges on execution capacity. Can a company really execute on a very aggressive, ambitious plan? And one of the amazing superpowers of the venture capital business is you guys are kind of hardwired to be able to assess a lot of the personality attributes of founders and operators to tell — some of the things that are harder to read from a deck or a spreadsheet — does this person really have what it takes to be able to execute, and address execution risk, underlying scientific risk, all the different risks that inevitably exist in any company. And so we actually would really love for the venture capital ecosystem to help be part of the solution, because I think you guys are better positioned to assess who are the best players in the space. And we can take that as an important signal to help inform capital allocations that we make on the government side to make sure that we allocate money in the right places and in the most efficient way possible.

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Highlight slides

America's Edge: Private Sector, Not Government Supply Chains✦ from: America's superpower is its private sector, not government-run supply chains, so Pax Silica adopts a product-centric approach where commercially viable platforms built by private companies serve as instruments of foreign policy, in direct contrast to China's state-owned Belt and Road model.China's Central Planning vs. U.S. Product-Centric Model✦ from: America's superpower is its private sector, not government-run supply chains, so Pax Silica adopts a product-centric approach where commercially viable platforms built by private companies serve as instruments of foreign policy, in direct contrast to China's state-owned Belt and Road model.Why the U.S. Approach Is More Ethical✦ from: America's superpower is its private sector, not government-run supply chains, so Pax Silica adopts a product-centric approach where commercially viable platforms built by private companies serve as instruments of foreign policy, in direct contrast to China's state-owned Belt and Road model.PaxSilica: A New Economic Security Coalition✦ from: PaxSilica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, not just semiconductors.Pax Silica Launches Forward-Deployed Industrial Base in the Philippines✦ from: The Pax Silica coalition is launching a forward-deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of land — a State Department economic security zone that combines American legal protections with Filipino manufacturing advantages to secure critical supply chain inputs.Pax Silica: A 14-Country AI Supply Chain Coalition✦ from: Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach.Pax Silica: 14-Country AI Supply Chain Coalition✦ from: Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, starting with a forward deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of State Department-controlled land.Forward Deployed Industrial Base in the Philippines✦ from: Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, starting with a forward deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of State Department-controlled land.Two-Year Window to Lock In Investor Protections✦ from: The Pax Silica coalition is launching a forward-deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of land — a State Department economic security zone that combines American legal protections with Filipino manufacturing advantages to secure critical supply chain inputs.Ecosystems-Based Approach, Not Just Chips✦ from: PaxSilica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, not just semiconductors.First Major Project: Forward-Deployed Industrial Base in the Philippines✦ from: Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach.Two-Phase Development Plan✦ from: Pax Silica is an economic security coalition of 14 countries designed to secure the entire AI supply chain through an ecosystems-based approach, starting with a forward deployed industrial base in the Philippines on 4,000 acres of State Department-controlled land.US establishes 4,000-acre economic security zone in the Philippines✦ from: The US is establishing an economic security zone in the Philippines — 4,000 acres, 1/3 the size of Manhattan — as a forward-deployed industrial base, taking the land into State Department custody initially, then negotiating a long-term investment framework within two years.Two-phase plan: diplomatic custody then long-term investment framework✦ from: The US is establishing an economic security zone in the Philippines — 4,000 acres, 1/3 the size of Manhattan — as a forward-deployed industrial base, taking the land into State Department custody initially, then negotiating a long-term investment framework within two years.The Belt and Road Initiative: A Case of Failed Central Planning✦ from: The Belt and Road Initiative failed because government-operated central planning creates waste and debt traps, whereas the U.S. approach puts private companies in the driver's seat to build commercially viable platforms.America's Private-Sector Edge in Supply Chains✦ from: America's competitive edge is its private sector and product-centric culture, not government-operated supply chains, so Pax Silica's approach is to build commercially viable platforms with private companies rather than replicating China's state-owned enterprise model.The U.S. Alternative: Private-Sector-Led Commercial Platforms✦ from: The Belt and Road Initiative failed because government-operated central planning creates waste and debt traps, whereas the U.S. approach puts private companies in the driver's seat to build commercially viable platforms.Pax Silica's Platform Strategy✦ from: America's competitive edge is its private sector and product-centric culture, not government-operated supply chains, so Pax Silica's approach is to build commercially viable platforms with private companies rather than replicating China's state-owned enterprise model.

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