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The hyperscalers are blowing through the debt markets — Oracle, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon raised $108 billion in all of 2025 and already $194 billion in 2026 — with rising spreads and falling cover, plus Google's $85 billion equity issuance in early June, signaling a dangerously escalating reliance on external capital.
The author documents the scale of hyperscaler debt issuance — $80 billion combined between September and November, $194 billion in 2026 alone — alongside Google's unprecedented $85 billion equity raise, arguing this reflects a fundamental shift away from cash-flow-funded CapEx that Microsoft alone still maintains. ✦ AI generated
Stratechery author · Stratechery · 2026-08-11 · original ↗
Microsoft is the one hyperscaler still abiding by the dictum used to deny the existence of a bubble: its CapEx isn’t funded by debt. This was, believe it or not, a defense that could be used for nearly all of Big Tech a year ago; then, between September and November, Oracle, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon issued a combined $80 billion in debt for building out infrastructure. That was only the beginning: after raising a combined $108 billion in all of 2025, these four companies have, as of July 7, already raised $194 billion this year. Unsurprisingly, spreads are rising, and 86% of the bonds issued this year are already trading at higher yields than at issuance. Cover for recent issuance has fallen to less than 2x, from 5x in February. The real shock, however, came at the beginning of June, when Google announced it would raise $85 billion in equity, including a special $10 billion issuance to the aforementioned Berkshire Hathaway.
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- ·Oracle, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon raised $108B in all of 2025 (debt)
- ·Already raised $194B in 2026 by July 7
- ·Rising spreads; 86% of 2026 bonds trade above issuance yield
- ·Cover fell to under 2x from 5x in February
- ·Google announced $85B equity raise, $10B to Berkshire Hathaway
- ·$80B debt issued between September and November 2025
- ·Microsoft is the one hyperscaler still funding CapEx without debt
- ·A year ago this defense held for nearly all of Big Tech
- ·The credit market is tightly stretched, signaling rising danger
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Hyperscaler capex spending is now projected to reach $3 trillion on a rolling 12-month forward basis, up from $500 billion in December 2022, representing an unprecedented commitment to long-term AI infrastructure.Michael Batnick · The Compound · conf 80%Jay Cooke's pioneering retail funding of the Northern Pacific Railway eventually led to the Panic of 1873, a multi-year depression, multi-decade deflation, and financial conditions that helped make Europe a tinderbox four decades later.Stratechery author · Stratechery · conf 60%