The bar for a top 1% startup exit has roughly tripled in about two years, rising from $10 billion (2020-2024) to $20 billion (early 2026) to $32 billion based on already-closed deals, and could exceed $100 billion by September.

8:05>> [snorts] >> early stage companies that we're doing, but it's it's really, really early. >> Yeah. When when I think of our prior 10 to 12 months ago, you know, there's there's a couple of things that I think have have kind of changed. One's been re-reinforced, which was, you know, we always thought that the largest companies were going to continue to be an order of magnitude larger than we'd

8:22seen in prior cycles. >> Yes. >> And if anything that's accelerating. So, you know, you know, we've we've put out some data around the size of a top 1% exit doubling every 5 years or so. Um so, between 2020 and 2024, top 1% exit started at $10 billion. Um we updated those numbers in uh in February this year. Um and a top 1% exit for 25 in the first

8:442 months of 26 was then $20 billion. We just updated them yesterday. Um and if you look at just the exits that have closed, it's now at $32 billion. So, where is the is the threshold for the the top 1%? And and then if you then think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in, um you know, potentially we could be north of $100 billion by by September. >> It's incredible.

9:07>> Which is just, you know, so we've 10xed >> Yeah. >> over [laughter] the space of kind of 24 months yeah what a top 1% exit looks like. >> Yeah. I mean, just the combination of those large companies I think is larger than the entire Russell 2000, if I'm not mistaken. >> Yeah. >> And so, the magnitude of these companies has just grown so great. And look, we've

9:27built our firm kind of in response to that. Like we believe the next subsequent generations of companies that get bigger um you know, as as new trends happen are going to be bigger than their predecessors. Um you know, we we actually did a a similar analysis where we looked at all of the VC-backed IPOs that happened over the last 6 years. And if you sum all of them up

9:48they're a little over a trillion dollars. Like they're that's probably going to be smaller than any of the three of the large IPOs uh that we expect to happen. So, um you know, I'd say the the observation is the outcomes keep getting bigger, um but it's happening much faster. The the the the pace of value creation is is getting faster. >> Particularly something like Wiz and Cursor, you'd you'd kind of like 4, 5, 6

10:08years and you know, to get from nothing to well, 30 billion dollars and then potentially 60 billion dollars. >> I I would say, you know, similarly, you know, there's a there's there's a lot that we, you know, we talk about all the time about deployment pace and how big our funds are and things like that. And if you, you know, extrapolate out and you say, "Hey, previous, you know,