The current AI boom cannot be called a bubble because valuations are actually falling — the tech sector PE went from 22 to 21, unlike the 1998-2000 dot-com bubble where PE doubled from 36 to 70.

35:241994 was a big rate reset as well when Alan Greenspan raised rates out of nowhere. >> And so there's a linkage there. And then 98 when long-term capital had their liquidity crisis. You know, the market fell 22%. And then it just roared back. The Fed eased three times and that was sort of the meltup. That's when the meltup began and that's when the internet boom became a bubble that burst

35:50then in March of 2000. Uh the tariff tantrum in April of 2025. I I it's obviously a different episode, but that was a 21% decline. Um and the market came roaring back. The Fed eased three times and that's when the AI sort of I don't want to call it a meltup. sounds too too uh too too flamboyant but but that's kind of when the market really started to go vertical in terms

36:17of the AI story. So there are parallels there. But again, you know, going back to 98 to 2000, the PE on the tech sector went from like 36 to 70. It doubled basically, right? >> This time it's gone from 22 to 21, >> right? So it's a totally different story. That last episode of the internet bubble was entirely valuation uh unsupported by anything else. And this one the earnings are so big that the

36:48valuations are actually going down instead of going up. So you can't I can't really call it a bubble under those circumstances unless uh you can argue that the quality of the earnings are poor because of the circularity of vendor financing or that we are placing a low PE on earnings that we think are secular but are actually cyclical. like you can you can poke holes into the

37:12story, but that's where you have to go to to to do that, I think. >> Yeah, that that's by far the biggest difference and the fact that the companies leading the charge are the some of the biggest best companies in the world, right? Just way more well-run than they were in the com bubble. Um, let's plug your your newsletter, uh, your weekly asset allocation review. This is only on LinkedIn, is that

37:30correct? Um, so I I publish every Sunday internally and then uh by Tuesday the the full the long form gets published on LinkedIn uh with with a a link to X my profile on X which is Tim Fidelity and then snippets of it will land on X just because X tends to be a little bit more short form and LinkedIn we think of more of of long form. Um, but I also do