The market is not in a 1999-style bubble because that era was PE-fuelled by FOMO with no underlying earnings, whereas today's rally is grounded in real, record earnings growth — a fundamentally different and healthier condition.
Yardeni argues the 1999-2000 comparison has been broken by the current surge in real earnings: the dot-com era was a PE rally on fear of missing out, while today's gains ride on actual record earnings and broadening breadth. ✦ AI generated
Ed Yardeni · The Compound · 2026-08-07 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 31:03
“do you worry at all about the just while you mention mentioned it?”
the whole case for 1999 2000 all over again has just been blown apart by this amazing earnings surge. Back then we had FOMO, fear of missing out. So we had a PE rally and the earnings really turned out not to really be there. This time around it's grounded on on earnings... Michael showed me a chart of the advanced decline line... We have an all-time record high in the AD meaning stocks in every sector almost every industry group are breaking out to new highs. In 99 it was only it was tech if you were investing in anything else you look like an idiot.
verbatim transcript · starts at 31:03
30:43earnings momentum >> because people don't believe it. because the people don't believe >> they don't believe it will continue. >> Yeah. And they, you know, and they they have some legitimate concerns about circular financing and, you know, this is the dot bubble all over again. But, uh, >> do you worry at all about the just while you mention mentioned it? >> No, I I you know, I've been pointing out
31:03recently that the the whole case for uh 1999 2000 all over again has just been blown apart by this amazing earnings uh surge. Back then we had FOMO, fear of missing out. So we had a a PE rally and the earnings really turned out not to really be there. This time around it's grounded on on earnings. >> You think we'd all be better if we didn't live through 1999.
31:26>> I think I would be I think I would be making more money and taking more risk if I hadn't been through that. >> Yeah. But on the other hand, uh the market, you know, climbs a wall of worry. And it's it's good to have uh people worrying. I mean, that creates the opportunity. Michael showed me a chart of the advanced decline line uh two nights ago on our on our YouTube
31:47show as another way to blow up the 1999 analogy. We have an all-time record high in the AD meaning stocks in every sector almost every industry group are breaking out to new highs. >> Yeah. >> In 99 it was only it was tech if you were investing in anything else you look like an idiot. You felt like an idiot every day. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean look at this year
32:11we've uh had I call them the impressive 493 have significantly outperformed the magnificent sub >> got oil stocks biotech stocks >> biotech yeah >> finance uh it's everywhere >> and biotech's using AI to go where none of us have ever gone before. >> So that's not 1999 at all in 99 >> 1999 is so yesterday. >> Yeah, >> you know. Okay. >> Yeah. I mean I'm looking at the future.
32:37I'm not I mean clearly we can learn from the past but let's not ignore the pace at which the future's coming at us. >> I I think you make a great point about um the dot bubble is acting like a governor on this stock market rally a little bit. I think people are so freaked out about blowing another bubble. Um so I actually think it's a good thing. I hear I I totally hear what
32:57you're saying. This is a great point, a great chart from Truest Wealth showing the multiple expansion in the do leading up to the do peak. It was 250%. Multiple expansion. >> Yeah. Wild. >> Here it's b I mean it's basically flat over the last 3 years. >> Mhm. >> It's 18% versus 250%. >> Hope was doing all of the heavy lifting. >> And well people could come back and say