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Taiwan has less than three weeks of energy reserves, so a Chinese blockade could brown out the island and shut down its chip fabs (which take 90 days to restart) without a shot ever being fired, making this a catastrophic risk to the global chip supply chain.

Gelsinger warns that Taiwan's fewer-than-three-weeks energy reserves make it vulnerable to a blockade that could brown out chip fabs for 90+ days, an economic shock he says would exceed the Great Depression, without any shots fired. ✦ AI generated

Pat Gelsinger · All-In Podcast · 2026-07-15 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 15:36

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Are we going to be able to onshore that... or is this truly could be a cataclysmic event if, god forbid, China decides we're going to blockade Taiwan?

The island of Taiwan has less than three weeks of energy reserves... that should just put a chill in everybody's spine, right? Because the blockade — after three weeks, the island browns out. When you turn off a fab, it doesn't come back on for 90 days. The economic impact of a brown out of Taiwan is greater than the Great Depression.

verbatim transcript · starts at 15:36

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15:36a real foundry. Okay, that's real progress. Uh, and TSMC's factories are up and operating at scale, right? We have Samsung and, you know, uh, as well. But, you know, I say the Intel and the TSMC progress. Okay, that's meaningful. Now, let's make it ugly for a second. Uh, the island of Taiwan has less than 3 weeks, a big article in the Wall Street Journal two weeks ago on this, less than

16:003 weeks of energy reserves. Wow. Okay, that should just put a chill in everybody's spine, right? Because the blockade after 3 weeks, the island browns out. When you turn off a fab, it doesn't come back on for 90 days, right? The economic impact of a brown out of Taiwan is greater than the Great Depression, right? Uh in the world, never do you need to do anything a shot

16:30to be fired. You just need to say, "Great, no energy for 3 weeks. >> No oil." Yes. >> Right. No LG, right? You know, that's how the island run. That is scary, you know, to me. We need more resilient supply chains uh associated, you know, with it. And I don't think this is an alternative for the world because if it really does become a risk, you know, and

16:50I'm, you know, I, you know, I don't sit in the situation room and get all the data and so on, but let's remind each other that I think China has blockaded the Taiwan Straits seven times over the last four years. >> Yeah. >> This isn't a theory. >> No, no. They're running exercises. They're being pernitious and >> right >> pretty provocative in terms of >> Is that 2027? Is that 2030? Is that

17:122035? their intentions have been clear over a sustained period of time. We need more resilient uh supply chains, you know, forward. So, something, you know, I put a lot of my time and energy into and we're making progress, but we need to go faster, need to go more meaningful. >> Yeah. And let's talk a little bit about the AI buildout. I mean, you watched the PC revolution, servers, the internet.

17:35These were all extraordinary buildouts. And then this is the buildout to end all buildouts. the amount of data centers, the amount of chips, the amount of inference needed. Do you think it's a bubble? I think I've heard you say like it's it's obviously a bubble, but what what's the risk factor here? That we build too much uh or that the technology doesn't solve enough problems and we are swimming in tokens?

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