People with high IQs will always be given money to manage — even after an avoidable blowup — because investors are drawn to brilliance and quirk; this guy deserves a mulligan and will get a second chance, but he should have been a VC investor, not a public market investor.
Ben explains why this 24-year-old will get a second chance despite blowing up his fund: high-IQ, quirky people always attract money. The fund never wound down, investors may even add more, and it's 'the velvet rope' type of fund where access to early Anthropic was worth it — but his real fit would have been venture capital, where you can't get margin-called. ✦ AI generated
Michael Batnick · The Compound · 2026-08-05 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 6:12
the whole thing about when genius fail... the reason that people like this will always get money from people. If you're an intelligent person and you're super smart, people will throw stuff at you. People will give you money. This guy will totally get a second chance... he should be a VC investor. He should not be a public market investor... The investors in this fund like this was a velvet rope type of hedge fund. You had to be somebody to get in or know somebody to get in. These are not retail money that's going to demand their money back... I would suspect that if his investors were going to demand their money back or give him more, they would probably give more... the first chance is not over. Like the fund didn't wind down. He's still alive.
verbatim transcript · starts at 6:12
6:08should I shouldn't say it's wild because >> you can you can make lines fit, but >> yeah, both they're both going up and to the right, but it is interesting that this has happened. So, okay, Ben, back to you. Go say a few things. >> But this the whole thing about when genius fail. The other good one is the smartest guys in the room about Enron. And this the reason that people like
6:25this will always get money from people. If you're an intelligent person and you're super smart, people will throw stuff at you. People will give you money. This guy will totally get a second chance. He probably shouldn't at this age. People should probably go, "All right, we're going to give this kid some time." He's 24 years older or 25. He had no professional investing experience when he launched his AI
6:43focused firm, Situational Awareness, less than two years ago with a few hundred million dollars. Um, he already manages more money than Bill Aman or Dan Loe. Okay. Um, this is this he got fired from OpenAI for uh letting go of sensitive information. Okay. >> That's neither here nor there. That's whatever. But just the I don't know the fact that he got fired from OpenAI and but he's he's ridiculously smart. He has
7:07a high IQ and if you have someone with a high IQ who was a little quirky. He obviously looks very quirky. Some of the videos make him look very quirky. People are going to give him money. He wrote a manifesto that helped him raise the money and that's where he came up with the situational awareness stuff. He's got all these huge investors uh the Collison brothers and people at at Meta
7:22and Sam Alman and he's married to the chief of staff at Anthropic and the story just it it kind of this is a truth is stranger than fiction kind of deal. This is my favorite part. >> Wait, why is this truth is stranger than friction? >> Because you could you couldn't this is central. You could not come up with a better character than this if you wanted
7:39to make it up. This guy is just a this guy is a perfect character for a young person in the AI boom who blew up a hedge fund, right? The pictures of everything. It's just it's perfect. Um he was getting married in Northern California the day his fund blew up. And this is my favorite part. There would be a pre-wedding collium to discuss ideas in panels and breakout sessions. They
8:01were gonna have >> I don't believe I don't believe that. >> Okay. I I kind of do. I don't know. Um >> Hold on. This All right. I >> This is the Wall Street Journal. >> So what? So what? >> Okay. >> So what? What? There was there was breakout sessions at this kid's wedding. Give me a break. >> All right. It's all believable to me. >> That part's believing anything is
8:24possible. That sounds But what happened here is totally believable that his fund grew so big, so massively because he made all these great AI bets. He he laid out this 10-year vision for AI and he said, "This is what's going to happen." A lot of people said, "Oh my gosh, this guy is he's like I think Tim Ferrris called him the AI Nostradamus, right?" Which was obviously the kiss of death