You cannot blow up a fund because of how smart you are; the only way a fund blows up is with leverage, and this works regardless of intelligence — which is why 'When Genius Failed' should be required reading for anyone managing other people's money.
Michael and Ben argue that the Situational Awareness blowup shows intelligence is not protection: the fund blew up purely through excessive leverage, and the ability to nail a macro thesis does not make someone a good portfolio manager — a lesson straight out of 'When Genius Failed.' ✦ AI generated
Ben Carlson · The Compound · 2026-08-05 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 5:04
the point that I was making about long-term capital management and the visual was bespoke has a chart showing they said it's crazy how the situational awareness blowup is right in line with the long-term capital management blowup on the Netscape chat GPT timeline... there's a difference between getting the macro thesis right and being a good portfolio manager. This guy is obviously not a good portfolio manager. Correct... he put too much leverage on... But the leverage is the thing as always. This always gets people. It's always leverage... which is why I mentioned he when genius failed should have been required reading. It's not about how smart you are. You can't blow up a fund. And the only way that you blow up a fund is with leverage.
verbatim transcript · starts at 5:04
5:05this lines up. We have a chart later in the show. By the way, Ben, I listened to our I listened to our uh podcast last week, and I apologize to some of the listeners. This is a very visual heavy show at times more so than others. And I think I take for granted the fact that everybody is watching along with us. They're not. But now uh we are releasing
5:25the video on Spotify at 4 a.m. whenever the podcast goes up. So if you are listening but we are referencing a chart that you think would be interesting. Open your phone, take it out and you can look look along with us. >> Look at YouTube. Hey, I just wanted to I just want to give a few things about him personally I think that are worth mentioning. >> Wait, can I finish my thought?
5:43>> Yes. I know I I I interrupted myself, but the point that I was making about long-term capital management and the the visual was bespoke has a chart showing they said it's crazy how the situational awareness blowup is right in line with the long-term capital management blowup on the Netscape chat GPT timeline. So, they've been charting this for the past couple of months and it's wild. Yeah, I
6:08should I shouldn't say it's wild because >> you can you can make lines fit, but >> yeah, both they're both going up and to the right, but it is interesting that this has happened. So, okay, Ben, back to you. Go say a few things. >> But this the whole thing about when genius fail. The other good one is the smartest guys in the room about Enron. And this the reason that people like
6:25this will always get money from people. If you're an intelligent person and you're super smart, people will throw stuff at you. People will give you money. This guy will totally get a second chance. He probably shouldn't at this age. People should probably go, "All right, we're going to give this kid some time." He's 24 years older or 25. He had no professional investing experience when he launched his AI
6:43focused firm, Situational Awareness, less than two years ago with a few hundred million dollars. Um, he already manages more money than Bill Aman or Dan Loe. Okay. Um, this is this he got fired from OpenAI for uh letting go of sensitive information. Okay. >> That's neither here nor there. That's whatever. But just the I don't know the fact that he got fired from OpenAI and but he's he's ridiculously smart. He has
7:07a high IQ and if you have someone with a high IQ who was a little quirky. He obviously looks very quirky. Some of the videos make him look very quirky. People are going to give him money. He wrote a manifesto that helped him raise the money and that's where he came up with the situational awareness stuff. He's got all these huge investors uh the Collison brothers and people at at Meta
7:22and Sam Alman and he's married to the chief of staff at Anthropic and the story just it it kind of this is a truth is stranger than fiction kind of deal. This is my favorite part. >> Wait, why is this truth is stranger than friction? >> Because you could you couldn't this is central. You could not come up with a better character than this if you wanted
- ·You cannot blow up a fund because of how smart you are
- ·Intelligence is not protection — Situational Awareness blew up anyway
- ·Only leverage can blow up a fund, regardless of intelligence
- ·'When Genius Failed' should be required reading
- ·Getting the macro thesis right differs from being a good PM
- ·He nailed the thesis but is obviously not a good portfolio manager
- ·Excessive leverage was the real culprit
- ·Blowup aligns with Long-Term Capital Management's on a shared timeline