Reacting to how far Future Search's forecasts diverged from the market, Pash argues good forecasting means 'living in the future' relative to market pricing, but calibrating exactly how far ahead you are, or risk being wrong-footed by a market that moves slower than your thesis. ✦ AI generated
Pash · The Cognitive Revolution · 2026-07-08 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 150:47
The trick is you have to live in the future, but you also have to calibrate how far ahead you are of the market because if not, if you make an investment, you end up getting run over by the market because the market's too slow. So, you have to like calibrate your investment time period to how far ahead, you know, you're ahead of the market.
verbatim transcript · starts at 150:47
150:4721% you called the market future search says 14. >> Yeah they they seem to have this kind of six month ago kind of view of the market. So, so if you calibrate to six months ago, this is roughly where the market is. It's it's what I call living in the future. [laughter] No, the trick the trick is you have to live in the future, but you also have to
151:11calibrate how far ahead you are of the market because if not, if you make an investment, you end up getting run over by the market because the market's too slow. So, you have to like calibrate your investment time period to how far ahead, you know, you're ahead of the market. Well, I don't know what to make of uh today's exercise to be honest with you. I mean, I was quite surprised by a lot
151:34of the future search answers. It does beat us in the points uh at least as we're scoring them here. You and I are we had very similar answers to a lot of things and we have very similar point totals. Um, and we both had moments where we sort of said what we think the true answer is and then kind of what we think the market answer will
151:55be, which is how we're being scored. So, I'm not sure what the takeaways are from this. I mean, the the individual questions are interesting, but at the future search level and at the market calibration level, I was surprised to the point where something feels kind of off somewhere. And is it on the AI side or is it the market side or is it just just you and
152:20me? I'm not really sure how to how to boil this down into a takeaway. Would you like to attempt it? Um I I I think I think like we're all trying to make sense of this information and we're trying to make sense of it together. Um I think the market is behind and you have to like not fear the fact that you're ahead of the market. So
152:45it's okay. Um I also think there's a lot of rules lawyering going on. Um and this is this has been the issue of the prediction markets from the beginning which is that you have to really pay attention to the rules uh and to how these things are resolved and people who do uh tend to make better bets and a lot of people a lot of the money being made is actually