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We should prepare for a post-AGI world by taking seriously a diverse set of forecasts and scenarios for how superintelligence might emerge, continually updated through benchmarking, rather than betting on one predicted trajectory.
Google DeepMind researchers argue that since ASI could arrive via several distinct and hard-to-predict pathways (scaling, algorithmic shifts, recursive self-improvement, or multi-agent coordination), preparation requires tracking many scenarios rather than one. ✦ AI generated
Google DeepMind researchers · Import AI · 2026-06-22 · original ↗
Instead of focusing on one technological trajectory and timeline, being prepared for a post-AGI world requires considering a diverse set of forecasts and scenarios, paired with continual benchmarking and monitoring to update the set of forecasts and scenarios and their relative plausibility
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- ·Don't bet on one trajectory or timeline for ASI
- ·Consider a diverse set of forecasts and scenarios
- ·Track their relative plausibility, not a single path
- ·Scaling of current approaches
- ·Algorithmic shifts
- ·Recursive self-improvement
- ·Multi-agent coordination
- ·Pair scenarios with continual benchmarking
- ·Monitor signals to revise plausibility over time
- ·Preparation is a process, not a prediction