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PredictionVideo · 33:33 — 35:03

Because the stock market is now too systemically important to fail, future downturns will show up as fast flash crashes that force policymakers into quick action, rather than long grinding bear markets.

Extending his 'too big to fail' thesis, Michael predicts that with the left tail of a Great Depression-style collapse effectively removed, markets will instead punish bad behavior quickly, turning what used to be bear markets into flash crashes that force policymakers' hands. ✦ AI generated

Michael Batnick · The Compound · 2026-07-15 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 33:33

Now here's my thesis of what this means. It means that markets will punish bad behavior way faster. And I think flash crashes now are not just going to be daily events. They're going to be bare markets. Like bare markets in the future are going to be flash crashes. We've already had them this decade essentially.

verbatim transcript · starts at 33:33

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33:15the question is let's say the stock market is too big to fail. What is what is the second and third order effects here and what are the and I don't know exactly what the risks are like we lop off the left tail. It's gone. The left tail of Great Depression. See you later. What does that mean? Now here's my thesis of what this means. It means that

33:33markets will punish bad behavior way faster. And I think flash crashes now are not just going to be daily events. They're going to be bare markets. Like bare markets in the future are going to be flash crashes. We've already had them this decade essentially. >> Look at IBM. Look at IBM today. >> IBM liberation day was essentially a flash crash where the stock market for so this started in 2008 when they when

33:53they did not pass the TARP bill and the stock market went down like 10% in a day and they essentially forced the politicians to come together and pass that bill. The stock market said no no no you're going to do this or we're going to cause more pain. >> Yeah. The same thing happened in COVID, right? The stock market went down so fast and forced the hand the government

34:09had to send out money. >> SV liberation day. They forced Trump's hand into saying, "You know what? I think I'm going to do a 90-day pause on these tariffs." This is what's going to happen. The stock market is going to hold everyone's feet to the fire and say, "If you don't do this, we're see you later." That's what's that the market is going to be that it's going to

34:26you're going to get more way faster downturn. So, the market hold like makes people make decisions to do so. >> Yes, I agree. And it all works as long as earnings are going up because if the if if if corporate America slows, there's nothing politicians can do to make the stock market go up. It's just true. It's just earnings growth. It really is. >> And guess what? Corporations are really

34:53good at producing earnings. >> Yeah. >> Especially when we have a 6% deficit from the federal government. >> Yes. >> All right. Uh the K-shaped economy narrative seems to be dying. Mike Zakardi in June higher income higher income households after tax wage growth eased while that of lower income cohort improved to a similar level. So you had this thing for a while where uh oh higher incomes are are having faster

35:17wage growth. Now it's caught up. Maybe, just maybe, all of this stuff is cyclical and it changes and you can't subscribe. You can't make a narrative to everything about like the K-shaped economy thing I think has been kind of it was kind of a flash in the pan just like lower income households doing so much better was a flash in the pan. These things change. I think the cake shaped economy has been

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