The Fed only really matters about 5% of the time — when it acts as lender of last resort in a crisis; the rest of the time its forecasts and 25-basis-point moves are basically astrology for middle-aged men who follow it.

40:01>> And also, you kind of need to be a dick in the social media world to rise to the top. Like, I don't care I don't care uh what party you're you belong to. Like if you're going to galvanize the masses, you have to just say the stupidest [ __ ] that appeals to the dumbest people and unfortunately that is >> South Park called this in 2004 and they

40:23had this whole episode about how they were voting for a school mascot and Kyle didn't want to vote because the two options were a douche and a turd sandwich. And I feel like that's just that's where we are. South Park again, they were right. The rest of our life we're gonna be voting between a douche and a turd sandwich. >> All right. I have I have a theory about

40:39the Fed that I've talked about for a while. Uh Joel Weisenthal tweeted uh Bank of America says the market's reaction to Kevin Wors resembles an emerging market facing a credibility shock and he talked about how the cur when he talked I mean all the macro people I follow hated his press conference and seem to think that he's he said he's not going to talk as much. He's not going to communicate as much.

41:00They didn't he's getting rid of forward for forward guidance. All these people said this is crazy. And so Bank of America said he got a steeper curve. equities went down in a weaker dollar and that's like what you'd see from EM banks. Now the macro people >> probably not great. The macro people are up in arms about this. They they the people I follow do are not big fans of

41:17Wars. They don't like his press conferences. They don't like the way he flip-flops on issues. They think he's too political. I have a theory and I think it's going to be put to test that the Fed really only matters like 5% of the time. And it matters when they are the lender of last resort and when we are in a crisis. That's the only time the Fed really matters. the other time.

41:34I think it's I think it's basically astrology for middle-aged men that talk about the Fed's forecasts. I think the Fed really honestly besides in a crisis doesn't do much. Their forecasts are always wrong. They never help out like when there's an actual bubble. They always are way too late to the party. Like they they want to come in and rescue after the fact. That's the only thing that the Fed is good for. Am I

41:56wrong? >> I don't think so. This may be a test where he he's going to say like we're not going to do this stuff anymore and the macro people are up in arms. They hate it. Yeah. I I still the Fed is astrology for finance bros. I think that's that's what the Fed is. Like they're they're their forecasts are never right. So what? Well, it's a it's a expectation function and blah

42:17blah blah. They're never right. Who cares? >> Well, I don't think anybody's I don't know that that's true. What they they they they talk they set guidance to set interest rates. I mean, of it doesn't. >> I just think 25 basis points here or there doesn't matter >> in the grand scheme of things. It's when we need them to really act. That's the only time the Fed matters. That's my All