Prediction◆Article
AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages relative to AI, so person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly out-compete unaugmented humans and take over parts of the economy.
Jack Clark argues that AI capability growth is outpacing humans' ability to develop new comparative advantages, predicting that person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly dominate the economy despite human innovation and augmentation. ✦ AI generated
Jack Clark · Import AI · 2026-07-06 · original ↗
I'm betting the other side: AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages relative to AI systems. Tracking the rate of capability improvement on tests like RLI will help us all judge this for ourselves.
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- ·AI capabilities grow faster than human comparative advantages
- ·Jack Clark bets against humans keeping pace with AI
- ·RLI test scores can track this race over time
- ·Person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly dominate
- ·They'll out-compete unaugmented humans in the economy
- ·Human innovation and augmentation won't be enough to offset this
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Evidence · 2
AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantage relative to AI, meaning the economy is likely headed toward person-light or person-nil, AI-heavy organizations outcompeting unaugmented humans rather than staying fundamentally the same.Jack Clark (Import AI) · Import AI · conf 90%AI models' ability to complete real, economically valuable freelance projects end-to-end more than quadrupled in under eight months, rising from 2.5% success in October 2025 to 16.1% in July 2026.CAIS and Scale researchers · Import AI · conf 70%