Prediction◆Article

AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantage relative to AI, meaning the economy is likely headed toward person-light or person-nil, AI-heavy organizations outcompeting unaugmented humans rather than staying fundamentally the same.

The author argues that despite human innovation and augmentation, AI capability growth is outpacing humans' ability to stay competitive, predicting a shift toward extremely person-light, AI-heavy organizations taking over parts of the economy. ✦ AI generated

Jack Clark (Import AI) · Import AI · 2026-07-06 · original ↗

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I’m betting the other side: AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages relative to AI systems. Tracking the rate of capability improvement on tests like RLI will help us all judge this for ourselves.

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✳ Remote Labor Index

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Evidence · 1

AI systems' ability to complete end-to-end online freelance work success has more than quadrupled in under eight months, from 2.5% at the Remote Labor Index's October 2025 launch to 16.1% by July 2026.Center for AI Safety / Scale researchers · Import AI · conf 65%

Extends · 1

AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages, so person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly out-compete unaugmented humans.Jack Clark · Import AI · conf 85%

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supports → AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages relative to AI, so person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly out-compete unaugmented humans and take over parts of the economy.Jack Clark · Import AI supports → AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages, so person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly out-compete unaugmented humans.Jack Clark · Import AI extends → AI systems are expanding their economically relevant capabilities faster than humans are expanding their comparative advantages relative to AI, so person-light, AI-heavy organizations will increasingly out-compete unaugmented humans and take over parts of the economy.Jack Clark · Import AI