Whether the US or China ends up dominating AI compute hinges on takeoff speed: a fast AI takeoff lets the West's compounding revenue and compute investment widen its lead, but if AI progress is slow enough to stretch out toward 2035, China's more vertically indigenized semiconductor supply chain could let it eventually scale past the West.

Dylan argues fast AI progress favors the US because Anthropic-style revenue and compute investment compound faster than China can build comparable lab-scale infrastructure, but a slow enough timeline gives China's fully indigenized supply chain room to catch up and overtake the West's more fragmented, multi-country one. ✦ AI generated

Dylan Patel · Dwarkesh Podcast · 2026-03-13 · original ↗

If and when Anthropic 10Xs revenue again—and I think our answer would be when, not if—China doesn't have the compute to deploy at that scale. So there is some sense that we're in a fast takeoff. It's not like we're talking about a Dyson sphere by X date, it's more like the revenue is compounding at such a rate that it does affect economic growth.

verbatim transcript · starts at 65:37