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Prediction◆Audio · 34:34 — 36:04

By 2028-2029 the single biggest constraint on scaling AI compute will be ASML's EUV lithography tools: ASML can only build about 70 this year, 80 next year, and just over 100 by 2030 even under very aggressive supply chain expansion.

Dylan explains that once mobile/PC chip capacity can no longer be shifted to AI, the ultimate ceiling on AI chip production becomes ASML's EUV tool output — capped near 100 machines a year by 2030 no matter how aggressively the industry expands. ✦ AI generated

Dylan Patel · Dwarkesh Podcast · 2026-03-13 · original ↗

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“But I want to understand five years out, what will be the thing that is constraining us from deploying the singularity?”

To scale compute further, there are different bottlenecks this year and next year, but ultimately by 2028 or 2029, the bottleneck falls to the lowest rung on the supply chain, which is ASML. ASML makes the world's most complicated machine: an EUV tool. The selling price for those is $300-400 million. Currently, they can make about 70. Next year, they'll get to 80. Even under very aggressive supply chain expansion, they only get to a little bit over 100 by the end of the decade.

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34:34– ASML will be the #1 constraint for AI compute scaling by 2030

34:34– ASML will be the #1 constraint for AI compute scaling by 2030

▦ ASML▦ TSMC✳ EUV
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