There are two possible futures for open-source AI: if Nvidia's open-source recipe works, it creates far more demand for their chips than it costs; if it doesn't work, open models will fork to a different path focused on efficiency, modifiability, and specialization.

There are two futures from here. First is if "it works" – if the open-source recipe works for Nvidia, they'll be creating far more demand for their chips (and profits) than it costs to build the models. Right now it's reported that Nvidia is spending $26 billion on this endeavor... The second future is if one of these two financially positive paths doesn't play out, open models will fork to a different development path than the leading closed models – one more focused on efficiency, modifiability, specialization, etc. I put this mentally as my most likely outcome – open models are still incredibly useful, but fill a long-tail ecosystem relative to the closed counterparts that have monopoly ownership stakes in the most valuable areas like knowledge work collaboration, drug discovery, SWE, etc.

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