Teaching Everyone to Fish for Tokens

Interconnects AI: These companies are both commoditizing their complements, but they're doing it in different ways. Nvidia wants to teach everyone to fish for tokens, so the ecosystem is self-sustaining, but Meta is strategically flooding the zone with tokens.

Interconnects AI: The oldest comparison people try to make is how what's happening with open models compares to foundational open-source software projects like the Linux operating system. There are fairly clean analogies, but they paint a narrow path forwards for the self-sustaining nature of the open-source model ecosystem, where once Linux got big enough it was going to be self-fulfilling as the best possible tool for many jobs. The open-source language model – i.e. only models that come with a full training recipe, data, code, etc. – is a closer analogue to the open-source operating system. The open weight models you use – those with just model weights and inference code to run them – are closer to specific versions of software that you install in a project built upon them.

Interconnects AI: The open-source ecosystem will become increasingly dependent on Nvidia's financing in the coming years. This is an existential window, where within a few years the profits of this approach need to return to them, or another open model company needs to cultivate platform-like financial feedback loops on their openness. This economic reward needs to be proportional to the profits generated by Anthropic and OpenAI's APIs to keep pace over decades of language model development.

Interconnects AI: Training is getting more complex and more abstracted. The current open model ecosystem is buoyed by an explosion in interest in post-training open models... There is a shift happening where the ability to train a base model to be a general agentic reasoner is becoming opaque like at-scale pretraining practices from a few years ago... As there's less interest in training the entire model, there's less interest in investing in open-source AI.