The science-and-technology tree is vastly larger and less explored than commonly assumed, so different civilizations — or even different research choices within one civilization — could end up discovering entirely different fundamental ideas, meaning alien civilizations would likely have a very different tech stack than humans.
Nielsen argues we're still near the bottom of an enormous, sparsely-explored tech tree (citing computer science's constant discovery of deep new ideas since the 1930s), so path-dependence means alien civilizations likely diverge sharply from human science and technology. ✦ AI generated
“That contradicts a common assumption I had that I never questioned... I found that a very interesting idea, and I want you to say more about it.”
The tech tree or the science and tech tree is probably much larger than we realize... My expectation is that there will be different ways of exploring this tech tree, and we're still relatively low down. We're still at the point where we're just understanding these basic fundamental theories, and we haven't yet explored them.
verbatim transcript · starts at 50:54
Transcript · around this moment
50:54– Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us
50:54– Why aliens will have a different tech stack than us
The Tech Tree Is Still Mostly Unexplored
·Science/tech tree is far larger than commonly assumed
·Humanity remains relatively low down the tree
·Still grasping basic fundamental theories, not their implications
✦ AI generated · slide 1Evidence: Computer Science Keeps Yielding Deep Ideas
·CS has surfaced fundamentally new ideas since the 1930s
·Continuous discovery signals a much bigger unexplored space
·Suggests other fields hide similarly vast unexplored terrain
✦ AI generated · slide 2Implication: Aliens Would Diverge From Human Tech
·Path-dependence means different explorers take different routes
·Different civilizations likely discover different fundamental ideas
·Alien tech stacks would likely look very unlike ours