You can never know from the outside, just by observing behavior, whether something is truly doing planning and counterfactual reasoning or merely executing a complex input-output function — all models of agency are only ever 'as if' models, because science is fundamentally about prediction and data compression, not ground truth about internal mechanism.
Beck contends that agency attributions are always 'as if' models built for prediction, since behavior alone can never reveal whether real planning occurred inside a system.
transcript
Jeff Beck: It's important to remember that like no matter how clever your model is and no matter how clever your approach is and how clever the words are that you use to describe it, a lot of this stuff is is is as if, right... science is about like prediction and data compression and like nothing else... you'll never know for sure in any meaningful way like whether or not it's just doing a function transformation or whether it's engaged in planning and counterfactual reasoning.