Prediction◆Article

The most likely incoming action is to ban or indefinitely delay any open-weights model meaningfully above the capability level of GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2, and this will likely happen within the next 6 months.

The author predicts U.S. regulators are likely to ban or indefinitely delay any open-weight model that meaningfully exceeds current frontier capability levels within roughly six months. ✦ AI generated

Nathan Lambert · Interconnects · 2026-07-12 · original ↗

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The most likely incoming action is to ban or indefinitely delay any open-weights model meaningfully above the capability level in the range of GPT 5.5, Claude Opus 4.8, or GLM-5.2. With the consistent capability gap, this should be within the next 6 months.

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✳ Claude Opus 4.8 ✳ GLM-5.2 ✳ GPT-5.5

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