The entire US stock market for the next two years hinges on whether OpenAI and Anthropic can sustain their 10x growth trajectory against open-weight competition.
Rory argues that the answer to whether open-weight models will reduce frontier-model growth below 100% within 1-2 years is the single most important question for US equities, because hyperscaler capex commitments — and therefore the entire market's direction — depend on those growth rates holding. ✦ AI generated
Rory · 20VC · 2026-07-23 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 45:35
“will open impact that trajectory for anthropic and open AI in the next 1 to two years”
if you know the answer to that question, that one question, you know the answer to the entire direction of the US stock market for the next two years because all the hyperscala RPO, all of it is a function of the commitments they've gotten from the the hype from the foundation model companies... if the open models, open weight models explode, there will be demand for inference... the capex will get repurposed, but it will be a big ass dislocation and I just genuinely don't know. I mean it's the million-dollar question.
verbatim transcript · starts at 45:35
45:17bets on yes or no answer will open impact that trajectory for anthropic and open AI in the next 1 to two years >> yes Harry it will impact it might impact at 1% or 50% what you're really saying what the question you're really trying to ask is does it produce a sustain you know does it reduce that growth growth rate to sub 100% within one or two
45:39years. Right? And the answer to that question is I genuinely don't know. And if I did, I'd be trading that stock. Because if let me be clear, if you know the answer to that question, that one question, you know the answer to the entire direction of the US stock market for the next two years because all the hyperscala RPO, all of it is a function of the commitments they've gotten from
46:00the the hype from the foundation model companies. And yeah, you can say if the open models, open weight models explode, there will be demand for inference. And yeah, you will have this kind of transition from oh, I sold it to open AAI but I should have sold it to um I don't know cursor or B base 10 or someone else and the capex will get repurposed, but it will be a big ass
46:24dislocation and I just genuinely don't know. I mean it's the million-dollar question. >> I think the tough the really tough part I mean it's Captain Obvious, right? is uh can they afford for it not to? And what I mean is look at what's happened with Fable this week. Okay, Fable went from you can't use it, it's not secure. Then the government let you use it. Then hey, we're going to turn it off except
46:44for variable usage on June July 15th. Now it can be 50% of your whole usage for the month. Why did they change when they don't even have enough capacity to serve it? Competition, right? Competition, right? So it if listen if they price Fable at sonnet rates I think they'll own the market. >> Yes, >> I'm oversimplifying because you don't need fable for anything but literally so the question is can can they afford to
- ·Is frontier-model 100%+ growth sustainable against open-weight models?
- ·Rory: this is the most important question for US equities
- ·Hyperscaler capex commitments depend entirely on this answer
- ·All hyperscaler RPO is a function of foundation model hype commitments
- ·Open-weight explosion shifts demand to inference, not training
- ·Capex would be repurposed — but at the cost of a major dislocation