The debate about AI has shifted from whether the technology works to whether the massive capital spending will generate adequate returns.

38:19the hard landing soft landing debate we had about the economy. It just kept going and going and going. Alex Eis had a good good tweet here. If you look at the last three years of AI progress, technologists have largely been right about the massive increase in capabilities, right? That's probably better than anyone. The the things that AI can do is probably better than anyone could have possibly imagined when Chad

38:36GBT came out at this point. Like, oh my gosh. >> Yeah. >> And the economists have largely been right about the economic impact. I don't expect that to change. This is the one. I think he's I think this is the right take. >> That the capabilities of this are going to keep getting better and better and better and it might not have the earthshattering impact that people

38:56think. And that's going to be it's we're somewhere in between the hard landing and the soft landing. And everyone's kind of like, wait, I'm kind of right and I'm kind of wrong. >> Can I That's where we've been. >> Can I pile on your Grand Rapids hedge? >> Mhm. >> I was thinking about the Paul Kadski Canos interview >> and Paul Kadraski has been making the case for a while now that this is a

39:19massive bubble. >> He has the I listen to that, too. He He makes the best bear take that there is. Yeah, it was good cuz he's not like he's not like uh this is all nonsense. He's like well obviously it's real otherwise there wouldn't be this level of investment. >> He he's not just a doomer either. He literally works he's a VC. Okay. And part of it I think I I worry that like

39:37wait is it just stickick that he's just the AI bear guy and he keeps doubling down. But his bare case it's the best bare case that there is by far. >> So how do you sum up his bear case? He's his bare case is that just listen there's there's never been this amount of spending before on something like this and the ROI is just not going to be

39:54there in time. >> Right? Is that fair? >> It's and it's not just that it's the biggest spending as a percentage of GDP in history. It's that it happened faster than any time in history and you just there's too much other spending that has to go on in the future. And if you just look at these like an actual investment unless we get unless we turn technology

40:14into a god. He's and he's saying like the only way I'm wrong is if this is actually a call option on AGI. >> So my takeaway was you know what this is just I put this in a too hard pile. >> Now I know as people ho as people talking about there's a financial podcast we should probably have strong opinions on is this a bubble? Is it not

40:30a bubble? I don't know. I listened to that I was like I just I don't know how could I how could I know how could I know if if if Google and and Microsoft and Amazon are going to get a high enough return on their investment. How the hell could I know? >> Yes, I totally agree. You come away from listening that you go, "Oh man." But