The current market has a bubble gauge reading about 75% of where it was in 2000 and 1929, but knowing that doesn't tell you timing — you need to watch for the pricking event, typically tightening monetary policy.

49:49and what happens is it's all the rage and so is it logical and there are these elements that create a bubble. Okay, there are right now um on that scale I have a bubble gauge. I measure measure all these things and I have this bubble gauge going back across countries to about 1900 and so I can see where they are and these by the way typically take

50:14place quite often when there's great new technologies a reason to be exuberant >> the reason to be exuberant and and to bet and and people confuse um investing in they they say I believe that technology is going to be great and revolutionary and it is Okay, but that doesn't mean the stock will be great. There's a lot of reasons that the stock could be too high and competitors come

50:40in and they, you know, uh there's a Google and there's a Yahoo. So, so what's the bubble gauge saying right now? >> So, the bubble gauge is saying it's about 75% toward where it was both in 2000 and 1929. So, it's pretty high up there. Okay. in Japan in its bubble in 1990, it got higher even than than those cases. So, it's high. But people pay too much

51:06attention. Let's say if I just do did the bubble gauge, I could tell you probably with good probability um that it won't be good to um for the next I I couldn't tell you whether it's going to be 3 years or 10 years, but it won't be a good investment. Um but it won't tell you timing. Timing you need the prickling the bubble. Okay. So what causes it to prick the bubble? So if you

51:29got a bubble and then you see, okay, here are the things that prick the bubble, then you've got a good combination of things to do your market timing because the timing is going to be on the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble typically is the creating the need for the cash for the for converting that wealth into cash for one reason or another. Quite often it's

51:51the most typical thing is tightening monetary policy. Okay. So what you have typically is that when stocks go up and bonds go down then what you have is uh the future expected return of equities becomes low relative to interest rates and when interest rates go up let's say a tightening of monetary policy you you know that's that's a classic dynamic. Other things like wealth taxes could do

52:19it. So in other words, for example, if you say you're going to have to pay wealth tax, then whoever has the wealth is going to have someone sell some of the wealth to get the money in order to be able to pay. So looking out for those things in terms of the timing is my machine. Take what that for whatever it's worth. I don't want people to trade

52:38on this and so on. But I'm just trying to answer the question that there are mechanics. Okay? Everything that happens ha h has causes that to make it happen. And if so you understand the mechanics of the cause effect relationships you can see all this and understand it that way. Is Bridgewwater the biggest hedge fund because you were the you had the best performance. Is it the biggest