Dalio's bubble gauge currently reads about 75% of the way toward the extreme levels seen in the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 1929 crash.

50:14place quite often when there's great new technologies a reason to be exuberant >> the reason to be exuberant and and to bet and and people confuse um investing in they they say I believe that technology is going to be great and revolutionary and it is Okay, but that doesn't mean the stock will be great. There's a lot of reasons that the stock could be too high and competitors come

50:40in and they, you know, uh there's a Google and there's a Yahoo. So, so what's the bubble gauge saying right now? >> So, the bubble gauge is saying it's about 75% toward where it was both in 2000 and 1929. So, it's pretty high up there. Okay. in Japan in its bubble in 1990, it got higher even than than those cases. So, it's high. But people pay too much

51:06attention. Let's say if I just do did the bubble gauge, I could tell you probably with good probability um that it won't be good to um for the next I I couldn't tell you whether it's going to be 3 years or 10 years, but it won't be a good investment. Um but it won't tell you timing. Timing you need the prickling the bubble. Okay. So what causes it to prick the bubble? So if you

51:29got a bubble and then you see, okay, here are the things that prick the bubble, then you've got a good combination of things to do your market timing because the timing is going to be on the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble typically is the creating the need for the cash for the for converting that wealth into cash for one reason or another. Quite often it's

51:51the most typical thing is tightening monetary policy. Okay. So what you have typically is that when stocks go up and bonds go down then what you have is uh the future expected return of equities becomes low relative to interest rates and when interest rates go up let's say a tightening of monetary policy you you know that's that's a classic dynamic. Other things like wealth taxes could do