Drawing on Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran, Carson argues the US repeatedly over-relies on technology as a substitute for manpower, when history shows only human beings can occupy territory and install new governments — a lesson he fears is being repeated with AI. ✦ AI generated
Brad Carson · Machine Learning Street Talk · 2026-05-31 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 41:02
How you win wars is with people, you know, that's the fundamental thing... The American way of war in many ways is substituting capital for labor. We love bright, shiny objects. We think they're technical solutions to vexing human problems. And we're always betrayed by that because in the end when you go to Iraq, you go to Afghanistan, you go to Iran, all the fancy kit, they can reduce your city to rubble, right? But the only thing they can't do and only humans can do this is basically come kick in your door and occupy your place.
verbatim transcript · starts at 41:02
40:42it really seems to be a bit it is a new dimension, right? this this unreli fundamentally unreliable technology >> and I think you know because I think a lot about the military uses of this um >> I still think we're making a bit of a mistake in the United States about this which is how you win wars is with people you know um that's the fundamental thing
41:02and I think it is I often said from my time in the military and watching this all go down the American way of war in many ways is substituting capital for labor we love bright shiny objects We think there are technical solutions to vexing human problems and we're always betrayed by that because in the end when you go to Iraq, you go to Afghanistan, you go to Iran, all the fancy kit, they
41:27can reduce your city to rubble, right? But the only thing they can't do and only humans can do this is basically come kick in your door and occupy your place and like, you know, reinstantiate a new government there that we like to see. That's a human endeavor. And you see Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the great lessons to me of that. Um, and I think Iran is yet another example of
41:47this today is like our over reliance on technical solutions. We always think air power. This is, you know, if you follow military history in the US, it's the long-standing dream of military theorists that air is going to win the war for us. From Julio Dahhat, the very beginning of the 20th century to today, all we need is air power. It never works, right? It takes human beings to
42:10do this kind of work. And I do think that that's always the weakness in the US. We go to war, we find we don't have adequate human beings to do this. Not the right people, not enough of them. And you know, now we're back into a world where we think AI is going to solve our problems for us. Yes, AI is an amazing tool. The US should integrate it
42:26into their systems as appropriate according to the law of war. But it's in the end going to be a lot of people, right, who win or lose the war for you. And that's true at the general level and that's true at the grunt level. And I said to me, we're like back to what many mistakes we've made in the past. I worked at the Pentagon in the 1990s as a
42:45young 25year-old. I was an assistant to the Secretary of Defense, White House fellow. And even then, it's like we have a revolution in military affairs coming. The fog of war will be forever lifted. We're going to know where everyone is at all times. You know, okay, how'd that work for us in Iraq and Afghanistan? you know, it didn't because cultural knowledge, anthropological understanding, um, understanding of like