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Roughly 30% of the private equity industry's capital over the past decade went into enterprise software, and because those purchase prices assumed a future without AI competition, private equity returns from that vintage will be disastrous even though the underlying software companies themselves won't necessarily fail.

Rowan predicts private equity returns will be 'disastrous' for the roughly 30% of the industry's capital tied up in enterprise software, since those valuations didn't price in AI competition. ✦ AI generated

Marc Rowan · a16z Podcast · 2026-05-27 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 33:38

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I guess where are we now and where do you think we go from here?

30% of the private equity industry over the past decade has been devoted to enterprise software. I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous because so much of exposure is to enterprise software... the price they paid reflected a future that did not have AI in it and now there's AI in it.

verbatim transcript · starts at 33:38

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33:38equity is really problematic >> totally and 30% of the private equity industry over the past decade has been devoted to enterprise software. I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous >> because so much of exposure is to enterprise software and this does not mean that enterprise software companies are going out of business far from it. It means that the prospects of onselling

34:03it either to the public markets or to someone else are now simply reduced >> just because the prices that they paid were too high and >> the price they paid reflected a future that did not have AI in it and now there's AI in it. Yep. So there's a competitor and again it doesn't apply to every company. It doesn't apply to every situation >> but the scale of change is just off the

34:23charts and if people who are not as techfocused are seeing this in their business daytoday you know I think about how we run the business here everyone at Apollo can envision how the job they do currently can change with the benefit of AI. Mhm. >> A handful of people can actually envision when data and software become free, how the business should should exist versus how it does exist. Well, there's still

34:53yet another part of this which is how do you envision how you start new businesses, >> the cost of starting a new business, the velocity of starting a new business. We've seen more business startups than ever. >> Totally. >> Because challengers now can start from a much different place. This is why we're tired as well. >> It's why we're tired, which is we have to be established companies, including

35:15companies that are successful like ours, we have to be really paranoid about replacement risk. But change is taking place faster in places there are a right answer. So why do we see coding in software? Because at the end of the day, the AI can check whether the AI is right. So the rate of change is a vertical line. >> Totally. >> And that's where we're seeing. On the

35:37other hand, if you want an answer to what is the best Shakespeare essay, we're seeing improvement, but someone has to inform. There's no right answer. What is the best Shakespeare essay? And so, we're going to see change, but not that same rate of change. This describes our business world perfectly. In some things that have a right answer, accounting, trade ops, a number of other applications, we are

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