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PredictionVideo · 36:26 — 37:56

AI-driven change will likely produce an economy where GDP, profit margins, and wages grow but overall employment does not, with a notable shift toward blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline that current politics isn't equipped to handle.

Rowan predicts AI will let the economy grow without growing employment, and expects a cycle favoring blue-collar work over white-collar work that will strain politics and blue cities. ✦ AI generated

Marc Rowan · a16z Podcast · 2026-05-27 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 36:26

I'm actually very bullish on wages. And I think we will see a cycling in employment. What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of bluecollar ascendancy and white collar decline. And I think that's going to be a difficult spot for politics which has not operated with that notion historically.

verbatim transcript · starts at 36:26

Transcript · around this moment

36:26that adopt change and have a change mentality. [snorts] I'm actually very bullish on wages. And I think we will see a cycling in employment. What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of bluecollar ascendancy and white collar decline. And I think that's going to be a difficult spot for uh politics which has not operated with that notion historically. It's going to

36:51be a difficult thing for blue cities where many many much of this white collar employment is focused. But the faster we get on with this and create the new businesses, the new industries, um, which historically has always been the case, the better off everyone is going to be. I >> I guess even kind of stepping back, you know, as a lender, you know, how has AI shifted your

37:11perspective of, you know, the type of collateral you're willing to lend against or, you know, what sort of predictable cash flows look like, you know, given given things are changing so quickly. So a lender with a lender's hat on, we've always had that mentality which is change is a constant. If I go back and I think about the year 2000 as a dividing line, uh people were worried

37:31as to whether the entire digital infrastructure of the US would fall down on Y2K. All right, we survived. >> Yep. >> But you go from there. In 2000, the market was still lending against something called yellow pages. >> How could a yellow pages be replaced? After all, it was free. It was granular. It was ingrained in culture. In this year's associate class, I use the term yellow pages and people raise their

37:53hand. They want to know what it was. >> Yeah. >> And so, but it doesn't stop there. The value TV stations and radio stations were once thought to be massive franchises. They're diminished. Other forms of content have come along and replaced them. They haven't disappeared, but they're diminished. Cable television was in part the successor. That's now been replaced. Y satellite television has been replaced. Mobile telefan has

38:17been replaced. Fiber's been You just look at the cycle of change. As a lender, you know this. You are diversified. You are senior where you perceive risk. You look for hard collateral. And you accept that you can't make a decision for 20 or 30 years. You can make a decision for three or five or seven years in what we're doing. There are good lenders, of which I think we're one. There are bad

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