Over the last year or two, the economy has absorbed a war, tariffs, and a new, hard-to-predict Fed chairman, yet it keeps proving resilient.

0:46years. Yeah. Absolutely. And uh >> Would you like to predict the end of it or or [laughter] not? Have we all given up on even thinking about when this ends or What do you What do you think? >> I mean, if you kind of look at the three things that I really think about. You got the economy, >> Right. >> we have done everything possible in the

1:02last year or two to disrupt the economy, right? We We created a war. Uh we implemented tariffs. Uh we got a new Fed chairman who nobody can quite pin down uh what he Where is he where he's actually going to go. >> Iffy labor market. >> Uh very iffy labor market and a lot of uncertainty around what AI is going to do ultimate to that labor market. If you

1:25read the Centrini report, you think it's doom and gloom, >> which is just fascinating the whole thing. But at the end of the day, the economy's proving to be very resilient. There's >> Accelerating. >> It is. Yeah, there's no signs whatsoever of uh in any sort of imminent correction. Inflation, while elevated, um is kind of in line with expectations. And then the most recent read we'd had was what, 3

1:48and 1/2% versus uh a call whisper number of 3.8 and 4.2 the previous month. It it the biggest single month drop in 6 years. And you know, obviously very attributable to um to the oil shock and uh the temp what's turned out to be the temporary uh uh ceasefire. And then finally the consumer, you know, the consumer especially on the high end continues to earn and continues to spend. So, you

2:17know, as we look to the back half of the year and even beyond that, you know, we kind of see a steady as she goes environment. Um And you know, there's a lot of questions that we I'm sure you'll talk about it ask me about AI and I have some real interesting views on that. But, you know, that's going to be a very big determinant where all this ends up.

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