Video · 2026-07-20 · 3m · 6 moments

Is This One of the Greatest Bull Markets Ever?

✦ AI generated

timeline · colored by role

Data◆

Earnings growth this quarter is broad-based, not just driven by hyperscalers — 10 of 11 sectors are growing earnings, and tech alone is growing 65% year over year.

Excluding the Mag 7, earnings are still expected to grow nearly 21%, with 10 of 11 sectors growing and tech posting a striking 65% year-over-year gain.

transcript

Analyst: excluding the Mag 7, earnings are still expected to grow 20.9%. So, it's not just hyperscaler stuff. 10 of 11 sectors will grow earnings this quarter. And yes, the biggest contribution will come from tech.

Claim◆

This has been one of the greatest bull markets on record, with only a few rough patches since 2008-09.

Asked whether this qualifies as one of the greatest bull markets ever, the analyst agrees, noting roughly 17 great years aside from a rough patch in early 2016 and a bad 2022.

transcript

Analyst: if you go back to '08, '09, uh we had a little blip in the first quarter of '16. That was rough. 2022 was bad. But other than that, it's been 17 great years.

supports · 3

Mechanism

Over the last year or two, the economy has absorbed a war, tariffs, and a new, hard-to-predict Fed chairman, yet it keeps proving resilient.

The analyst lists the major disruptions of the past couple years — war, tariffs, an unpredictable new Fed chair, and a shaky labor market — and argues the economy has nonetheless stayed resilient.

transcript

Analyst: we have done everything possible in the last year or two to disrupt the economy, right? We We created a war. Uh we implemented tariffs. Uh we got a new Fed chairman who nobody can quite pin down uh what he Where is he where he's actually going to go.

rebuts · 1

Prediction

AI's ultimate impact on the labor market is deeply uncertain — the Centrini report paints a doom-and-gloom picture — but so far the economy is proving resilient.

The analyst flags major uncertainty over AI's effect on jobs, citing a gloomy Centrini report, while emphasizing the economy currently shows no signs of imminent correction.

transcript

Analyst: a lot of uncertainty around what AI is going to do ultimate to that labor market. If you read the Centrini report, you think it's doom and gloom, which is just fascinating the whole thing. But at the end of the day, the economy's proving to be very resilient.

Data

The latest inflation reading of 3.5% was well below whisper expectations of 3.8-4.2%, the biggest single-month drop in six years, largely due to an oil shock and a temporary ceasefire.

Inflation came in at 3.5% versus a whisper number of 3.8-4.2%, marking the largest single-month drop in six years, attributed mainly to an oil shock and a temporary ceasefire.

transcript

Analyst: the most recent read we'd had was what, 3 and 1/2% versus uh a call whisper number of 3.8 and 4.2 the previous month. It it the biggest single month drop in 6 years. And you know, obviously very attributable to um to the oil shock and uh the temp what's turned out to be the temporary uh uh ceasefire.

Prediction

The consumer, especially at the high end, keeps earning and spending, pointing to a steady-as-she-goes environment for the back half of the year and beyond.

High-end consumers continue to earn and spend, leading the analyst to predict a steady, unremarkable economic environment through the rest of the year and further out.

transcript

Analyst: the consumer, you know, the consumer especially on the high end continues to earn and continues to spend. So, you know, as we look to the back half of the year and even beyond that, you know, we kind of see a steady as she goes environment.

supports · 1

Highlight slides

Earnings Growth Is Broad-Based✦ from: Earnings growth this quarter is broad-based, not just driven by hyperscalers — 10 of 11 sectors are growing earnings, and tech alone is growing 65% year over year.Tech Still Leads, But Others Grow Too✦ from: Earnings growth this quarter is broad-based, not just driven by hyperscalers — 10 of 11 sectors are growing earnings, and tech alone is growing 65% year over year.One of the Greatest Bull Markets Ever✦ from: This has been one of the greatest bull markets on record, with only a few rough patches since 2008-09.The Rough Patches✦ from: This has been one of the greatest bull markets on record, with only a few rough patches since 2008-09.

Related episodes

Video · a16z Podcast

Ben Horowitz on the Global Race for Tech, Power, and Influence

→

Video · Lenny's Podcast

The rise of taste, human authenticity and judgment in an AI world | Adam Mosseri (Head of IG)

→

Audio · All-In Podcast

SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike

→