In the autonomous vehicle race, distribution ultimately wins over superior technology because vehicle makers have expensive fixed assets that need utilization and will partner with platforms that provide riders.
Macdonald argues that even if Waymo or Tesla achieve superior AV technology, they will still need Uber's 200-million-user distribution network to fill their vehicles, analogous to how McDonald's still works with delivery marketplaces despite having its own app. ✦ AI generated
Andrew Macdonald · 20VC · 2026-08-17 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 27:12
“What's interesting there is you say then that distribution is more important than superior technology.”
I think in the end, distribution wins. And look, of course, if only one player gets to the finish line on the technology side, then that is a problem for us. But that is not the future that I think we think will exist. And even if you look at what's happened in China, there's not one AV company that is emerging as a winner there. There are already four or five. So, I don't know why China would have four or five, which by the way, will over time become eight or 10, and the rest of the world would converge around one player. I I just don't see it emerging that way.
verbatim transcript · starts at 27:12
26:52possible. And whether that's a store or a car, I think that's going to be true. And so, I think whether Waymo or Tesla ends up being the bigger threat, I don't know. I think ultimately it's in both of their interest to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robo-taxi apps or their own 1P apps, even if they work with our competitors on the ride share side or on the
27:12delivery side, I think everyone will work with us because ultimately we have distribution, and ultimately they have expensive fixed assets that need utilization. >> What's interesting there is you say then that distribution is more important than superior technology. >> I think in the end, distribution wins. And look, of course, if only one player gets to the finish line on the technology side, then that is a problem for us. But that
27:40is not the future that I think we think will exist. And even if you look at what's happened in China, there's not one AV company that is emerging as a winner there. There are already four or five. So, I don't know why China would have four or five, which by the way, will over time become eight or 10, and the rest of the world would converge around one player. I I just don't see it
28:03emerging that way. >> You were at Uber when you did Uber China, right? Right? >> I was. Yeah, we exited our China business in 2016. >> You You You've got kids, right? >> I do. I have three daughters. Yeah. >> Okay. So, you with kids, you tell them story time. >> Yes. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Right. I I I pretend like, you know, it's story time. What's the wildest story from Uber
28:25China? >> So, I was only like sort of over China for a few months before we ultimately did the deal deal with Didi. And like even just those few months were like I felt like I lived years, right? Just seeing the deal process play out, all the regular emotional highs and lows that come with the deal process, but also then the specific, you know, China specific, uh Travis-specific, like it it was just
- ·In the end, distribution wins over superior technology
- ·Vehicle makers have expensive fixed assets requiring utilization
- ·Makers will partner with platforms providing riders
- ·Four to five AV companies already competing in China
- ·This will grow to eight to ten players
- ·World won't converge to a single AV winner