Autonomous vehicles are existential for Uber's core business because AV is a better product that will only improve over time.
Macdonald argues autonomy is existential because it's a better product that improves daily — better in-car experience, privacy, safety — and Uber must have it on its platform or risk obsolescence. ✦ AI generated
Andrew Macdonald · 20VC · 2026-08-17 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 17:45
“Why is it existential, and how how do you think about that, and how it changes the business forever?”
it's existential because at the end of the day it's a better product than our core product in many use cases. And I think those use cases grow over time, and eventually it's better in all use cases. Um you can quibble along the edges on like current autonomous vehicle experiences, right? In most cases it is it is going to be slower than a human driver. The pickup point may not be right in front of your door as you would get with a human driver. Uh it's not going to work in all weather conditions, all geographies, all pickup points. Like you you can quibble on that today, but I think increasingly over time autonomy is not only going to be safe, it's going to be safer, and I think it's going to be a better experience because people like the in-car experience. The in-car experience of having privacy and being able to um work or sleep or talk with your partner or whatever it is you want to do. Like that is better, and people prefer that for the most part. So, when you have a better product that is only going to get better over time, and autonomy is as bad as it's ever going to be today, right? And every single day it's going to get better. Um then that's going to be the business, and that's going to be how people get around. And if Uber uh doesn't have autonomy on platform, and we will, uh we will we will we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market. But if if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business.
verbatim transcript · starts at 17:45
17:45>> I'm I mean, it's existential because at the end of the day it's a better product than our core product in many use cases. And I think those use cases grow over time, and eventually it's better in all use cases. Um you can quibble along the edges on like current autonomous vehicle experiences, right? In most cases it is it is going to be slower than a human driver. The
18:09pickup point may not be right in front of your door as you would get with a human driver. Uh it's not going to work in all weather conditions, all geographies, all pickup points. Like you you can quibble on that today, but I think increasingly over time autonomy is not only going to be safe, it's going to be safer, and I think it's going to be a better experience because people like
18:29the in-car experience. The in-car experience of having privacy and being able to um work or sleep or talk with your partner or whatever it is you want to do. Like that is better, and people prefer that for the most part. So, when you have a better product that is only going to get better over time, and autonomy is as bad as it's ever going to be today, right? And every single day
18:50it's going to get better. Um then that's going to be the business, and that's going to be how people get around. And if Uber uh doesn't have autonomy on platform, and we will, uh we will we will we are investing actively and aggressively to bring it to market. But if if we didn't, then it certainly would be existential for our core business. >> Is it the largest investment that you
19:11make? >> It is. I mean, I I think it kind of depends how you define it a little bit. Like if you look at our autonomy investments, we are making a mix of equity investments in companies, vehicle commit purchase commitments, building out autonomous infrastructure, building out data collect fleet. Like there's a lot of different ways we're spreading the dollars. Um and and we're pretty confident in the
19:31ROI in those dollars long term. So yeah, it's the largest single sort of stand-alone investment we we make. Now, don't be you know, don't get me wrong. With a P&L our size, we're moving billions of dollars around every month. But yes, it's the largest single area of investment. >> I'm a venture investor also. >> Yeah. >> Which means um I love to pontificate and I also say I
19:52love to say I told you so. >> Yes. >> Um you and Travis kind of went down this road already. Do you look at that with annoyance that you stop-started and would you be materially ahead had you just been able to continue as planned? >> I I mean, first off, I'll say um when we started our autonomous efforts, yeah, this was a secret project within Uber. I I was not involved in starting
- ·AV is a better product than Uber's core service in many use cases
- ·Its use cases will only grow over time
- ·It offers a superior in-car experience (privacy, work, sleep)
- ·Uber must have AV on its platform or face obsolescence
- ·Better passenger experience: privacy to work, rest, or converse
- ·Safety will improve from current state
- ·Current limitations (slower, weather/geo) will shrink daily
- ·Autonomy is as bad as it will ever be today