If you strip out both the best and worst days in the market, you end up with returns only marginally better than simple buy-and-hold, because the two effects offset each other.
Ben Carlson explains that missing the 25 worst days makes $1 grow to $236, missing the 25 best days makes it grow to only $8, but missing both best and worst days nets out close to plain buy-and-hold returns. ✦ AI generated
Ben Carlson · The Compound · 2026-07-15 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 5:50
“My question is, how do these two concepts intersect? Is the secret to Bob's ultimate success entirely dependent on the fact that by never selling, he accidentally captured Tom Lee's 10 best days?”
This shows $1 invested in the S&P 500 in 1990. If you missed the 25 worst days $236 does turned into. If you missed the best 25 days, it turns into $8... what if you miss the 25 best, worst, and best days? Both of them. You end up doing like marginally better than the buy and hold. It's pretty much a buy and hold.
verbatim transcript · starts at 5:50
5:30>> I'm just Just being respectful. >> Here's the thing. So we have a chart on this. We show this to clients actually. So let's do a chart on this. This is What if you avoided the best and worst days? So this shows $1 invested in the S&P 500 in 1990. If you missed the 25 worst days $236 does turned into. If you missed the best 25 days, it turns into $8. So, this
5:50shows a huge difference. If you could just miss the worst days, you're doing amazing. If you miss the best days, you're doing terribly. Right? Now, look at the middle. If you invested in all days, you're doing pretty well. That's buy and hold. But, what if you miss the 25 best, worst, and best days? Both of them. You end up doing like marginally better than the buy and hold. It's It's pretty
6:10much a buy and hold. So, the question is, why? Why is this? Chart off. It's because the best and worst days happen together. Chart on. Stole this one from exhibit A. This shows the best and worst days since 1990. You can see they cluster together. They all kind of happen at the, you know, 2008, of course, 2020. These things happen together. That's because when the market is in a downtrend,
6:35people panic. They panic buy and they panic sell. Chart off. So, you see them both like it's it's great like oh, I'll just miss the the worst days. What How is That's easy. You can't because they happen with the best days. So, it's not like Bob took advantage by buying at the peak. He He had all of them. So, let's I pulled this up. This is from one of my spreadsheets
6:55that shows the February of 2020 to April of 2020 when we had the huge COVID crash. And these are just the daily returns. I've color coded them cuz I'm good at Excel. Look at this. You have the -9%, +9%, -12%, +6%, -5%. All these It's back and forth and back and forth. The Michael Scott snip snap. All the good days happen with the bad days cuz people are wondering, is this
7:20the end? No, this is not the end. And you have this panic back and forth and that's what happens during volatile markets. So, it's there's not like a a trick here or a secret. It's just Bob stayed invested. Right? Remember cuz he invested at the peak. So, he had to eat with the good with the bad. The bad with the good. So, his success really was putting his
7:40money into the peak, but then keeping it invested for years and years and years. That was what the They were That's where the compounding came from. There's no like trick to it. Bob had to eat the best day and the worst day still cuz he invested at the peak. >> Yeah, I don't know what it is, but I've noticed a lot of young people and people new to the market in general, they seem
- ·$1 invested in S&P 500 since 1990
- ·Miss 25 worst days: grows to $236
- ·Miss 25 best days: grows to only $8
- ·Missing both best and worst days offsets each other
- ·Result lands close to plain buy-and-hold
- ·Only marginally better than doing nothing