AI will expose and displace investment professionals whose skills aren't as great as they claim, the way indexation exposed underperforming active managers, but experienced human judgment—like sensing something is wrong with a person for undefinable reasons—may remain something AI cannot replicate.
Marks argues AI will unmask mediocre investors much like indexing did, but believes there's likely a lasting role for the intangible judgment and instinct of experienced human investors. ✦ AI generated
Howard Marks · My First Million · 2026-07-15 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 5:59
“So, I guess in your heart of hearts, do you think, you know, in the future the next Howard Marks is not a human, but maybe a human with AI or just AI?”
I think we've helped our clients over the years by not investing with bad people. And sometimes you talk to people and for undefinable reasons you just say, you know what? It doesn't feel right. As somebody said to me, the hair on your back on your neck goes up. And if that's true and if AI doesn't have hair on its neck then maybe there's a role left for experienced investors with judgment.
verbatim transcript · starts at 5:59
5:59and for undefinable reasons you just say, you know what? It doesn't feel right. As as somebody said to me, the hair on your back on your neck goes up. And if that's true and if AI doesn't have hair on its neck then maybe there's a role left for experienced investors with judgment. I I believe so. First of all, there will always be things for which there is no history to
6:28train on. And to the extent that that a certain big percentage of what AI does is knowing history and recognizing and extrapolating patterns. There will always be stuff for which there is no history. There are just some people who have a better understanding of the probability distribution that defines future events. >> I was reading this book on Steve Cohen. And there was this part where they were
7:00describing how he was kind of like the man at a very young age. They were like, he can just feel the ticker. He just like is in tune and in flow with it. And I was like, oh, that's beautiful, but like this I can't replicate that. And I was always curious about that because I think in one of your books, I think you had said something like, I can't make I
7:18can make someone better, but I don't think I can make them great. Can you talk to that about like what it is that makes someone who is a good investor good, but also how the average person could get better? Like or do you believe that's not that's not even possible that you just you have it or you don't? >> Well, in in my first book, The Most
7:37Important Thing Columbia, which published the book Uh, were talking about the They said, "Well, write us a sample chapter." So, I sat down and I wrote a chapter that I had never even thought about. And it turned out to be the first chapter in the book and it says, >> On this show, we have spent hours talking to some of the best investors alive. Well, lucky for you, the team at