AI has two unprecedented qualities compared to every prior technology: autonomy (you can give it a job without specifying how to do it, and it figures it out) and a degree of unpredictability about the future that no earlier innovation, including the internet, ever had.
Howard Marks explains why he upgraded his view of AI: unlike past technologies that were mere productivity tools, AI can act autonomously and its future trajectory is genuinely unknowable. ✦ AI generated
Howard Marks · My First Million · 2026-07-15 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 2:05
“Are you at all approaching this in an emotional way, you think?”
All the other technological innovations from the railroad to computers, to the internet, etc., were all tools or things to speed up and increase productivity. There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy. The idea that it you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it, and it'll figure it out. Is really unique.
verbatim transcript · starts at 2:05
2:05know, this is really uh uh exceptional stuff. There's a quality to AI uh or more than one quality, which uh are unprecedented, in my opinion. The first the obvious one is autonomy. All the other technological innovations from the railroad to computers, to the internet, etc., were all tools or uh things to speed up uh and increase productivity. There's never been anything with the quality of autonomy. The idea
2:47that it you can give it a job and not tell it how to do it, and it'll figure it out. Is really unique. And the it what comes with that yeah, of course, is this nagging concern that it may take over. So, that's that's really important. The other thing and this is not uh kind of uh quantifiable is there's never been anything, in my opinion so unpredictable.
3:18I don't think anybody knows the shape of the future. So, I I have never had that sense before. I never say I never thought that that the internet, for example was uh beyond comprehension or beyond prediction. >> Do you think that AI will be able to do what you do? And I know you talk about this in the the memo. And I got to be honest, when I read it I
3:46I you know, I almost felt like you know, you read stories about Warren Buffett reading the Moody's manual page by page 800 companies and trying to digest that information. Well, AI can do that in in a heartbeat, right? Like you know, a lot of the things that that go into making investment decisions it can do very well, very fast. And then also it's advancing so fast. So, you know, whatever we thought it