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AI is the only thing that matters for the stock market right now, and its continued expansion of capex is what has allowed the market to ignore every major crisis and headline.

The hosts argue that despite numerous crises including pandemic, inflation, wars, tariffs, and banking failures, the AI trade has single-handedly kept the market at all-time highs. ✦ AI generated

Ben Carlson · The Compound · 2026-08-12 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 3:00

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Is it all AI still? Is this Is this the thing that just AI trumps everything? It doesn't matter what the headlines throw at us, it it all determined by AI.

I the the reason why none of this has mattered uh really and truly, I do believe it's the AI trade. I mean, I don't think I'm going out on a limb there. So, look at this chart. Uh Well, actually, you know what? The consumer part of it is also a a a big part of the story. The fact that the consumer has been able to be resilient through all of this is remarkable, but through the lens of the stock market, what matters obviously is is uh is the AI trade and the continued expansion of CapEx numbers.

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2:52commercial real estate crisis cuz everyone was working remotely. >> Private credit crash. >> Yep, private credit stackflation fears. >> I I the the reason why none of this has mattered uh really and truly, I do believe it's the AI trade. I mean, I don't think I'm going out on a limb there. So, look at this chart. Uh Well, actually, you know what? The consumer part of it is also a a

3:15a big part of the story. The fact that the consumer has been able to be resilient through all of this is remarkable, but through the lens of the stock market, what matters obviously is is uh is the AI trade and the continued expansion of CapEx numbers. This is wild. Look at this chart from Hyperscaler Farmer uh or Hyperscale Farmer. Bloomberg consensus on a rolling basis now should

3:40pass $3 trillion. So, we're looking at the three-year sum on a rolling 12-month forward basis for Amazon, Google, Metal Meta, Oracle, and Microsoft. And in December 2022 when this thing started, it was at it was at $500 billion and and it's gone up and up and up and up and now it's going vertical and we're looking at $3 trillion over the next 3 years I suppose. Is that what we're

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