Video · 2026-07-09 · 41m · 6 moments

Travel Through the Lens of AI with with Booking.com CEO Glenn Fogel

✦ AI generated

GUEST Glenn Fogel HOST Sarah Guo HOST Elad Gil

timeline · colored by role

Claim◆

Neither the panic when new AI models seemed to enable agentic commerce nor the relief when OpenAI backed off being a merchant of record reflects reality — AI is simply a beneficial tool that helps Booking serve travelers and partners better, not an existential threat or a false alarm.

Fogel says markets overreacted twice — first fearing AI would make travel companies worthless, then over-relaxing when OpenAI stepped back from merchant-of-record commerce — and that neither reaction captures the nuanced reality.

transcript

Glenn Fogel: The truth is the way we look at AI is an incredible beneficial tool and a way for us to be able to do our mission easier, hopefully cheaper and better for our customers... the idea of chatting, you know, no longer having one method — I wouldn't read too much into that one way or the other.

gives example · 1rebuts · 2

Anecdote

Using Priceline's AI agent 'Penny,' Fogel personally planned a complex multi-city family trip — splitting cabins, mixing miles and cash, and sequencing hotel and onward travel — with the AI asking clarifying questions and working through tradeoffs interactively.

Fogel recounts personally using Priceline's Penny AI agent to plan a complicated family trip involving mixed cabins, frequent-flyer miles versus cash, and multi-city logistics, calling the experience 'wonderful.'

transcript

Glenn Fogel: I put in a very complex uh need for a travel with the family where it was uh my wife and I, we want to go up in the front of the bus. I want the young adults who are adults but I'm paying so I want them in the back of the bus.

rebuts · 1

Mechanism

Judging AI's success can't just rely on usage growth — Booking has to rigorously track the real cost of AI (token consumption, compute, back-and-forth interactions) against ROI per booking and long-term customer lifetime value before scaling it further.

Fogel explains that Booking deliberately hasn't fully scaled Penny yet because the true cost per interaction (tokens, model choice) and long-term ROI/lifetime-value effects are still being worked out.

transcript

Glenn Fogel: What's the cost of this? That's what's developable of running it. How many tokens are we consuming? ... tell me how much was the cost of us getting that trip for that person and what is our ROI going to be. Then the next thing is well what's the return, long term lifetime value, do they come back, the loyalty's up — these are things that we don't know yet.

Claim◆

There is no such thing as a durable moat in business — any competitive advantage can vanish tomorrow, and the only way to win long term is to keep developing new services and better ways of doing things.

Fogel argues that no competitive advantage is permanent; Booking Holdings has to keep innovating every day or risk losing its position, no matter how large it is today.

transcript

Glenn Fogel: There is no such thing as a moat. There is no such thing as something where you're going to be protected against innovation. And that's what I try and get across to the team... today we have a competitive advantage on areas absolutely but those can go away tomorrow. The only way to win long term is to continue to develop new services, new ways to do things.

gives example · 2rebuts · 4

Claim

Booking Holdings' real durability comes from operational scale (thousands of staff managing partner relationships, huge listing/transaction volume comparable to or exceeding Airbnb) and from the complexity of navigating heavy global travel regulation, which new AI-native entrants underestimate.

Fogel says incumbents' scale in partner management and their ability to absorb complex, tightening global travel regulation are real advantages that naive new entrants underestimate.

transcript

Glenn Fogel: It's so much more complex than I believe many other people who look at this industry from afar... the regulatory framework around the world dealing with travel is a very highly regulated... if you want to be merchant of record in travel, you got to adhere to a whole bunch of rules... if you think you're just going to come in and do this business and knock away these very big players, I say you should really understand what the business is before you decide to commit your capital.

extends · 1provides context · 1

Example◆

Technology has always displaced jobs, but the danger this time is that the speed of AI-driven job destruction is outpacing the creation of new jobs and society's ability to retrain workers, exemplified by a 50-something truck driver whose livelihood vanishes to automation.

Fogel says the historical pattern of tech destroying and creating jobs still holds, but this time the mismatch in speed between job loss and new job creation — illustrated by an automated-out-of-work truck driver — is a real societal concern with no clear retraining solution.

transcript

Glenn Fogel: The typical person I think about is a 50some year old truck driver, and when the person who was making a very nice living and felt very good about himself because he or she is driving an 18-wheeler across the US... and now all of a sudden that's completely automated. You're out of the job. What are we going to do, how are we going to retrain that person?

extends · 1rebuts · 3

Highlight slides

Two Overreactions to AI in Travel✦ from: Neither the panic when new AI models seemed to enable agentic commerce nor the relief when OpenAI backed off being a merchant of record reflects reality — AI is simply a beneficial tool that helps Booking serve travelers and partners better, not an existential threat or a false alarm.Fogel's Actual View✦ from: Neither the panic when new AI models seemed to enable agentic commerce nor the relief when OpenAI backed off being a merchant of record reflects reality — AI is simply a beneficial tool that helps Booking serve travelers and partners better, not an existential threat or a false alarm.No Moat Is Permanent✦ from: There is no such thing as a durable moat in business — any competitive advantage can vanish tomorrow, and the only way to win long term is to keep developing new services and better ways of doing things.The Only Path: Keep Innovating✦ from: There is no such thing as a durable moat in business — any competitive advantage can vanish tomorrow, and the only way to win long term is to keep developing new services and better ways of doing things.Tech Has Always Displaced Jobs✦ from: Technology has always displaced jobs, but the danger this time is that the speed of AI-driven job destruction is outpacing the creation of new jobs and society's ability to retrain workers, exemplified by a 50-something truck driver whose livelihood vanishes to automation.The Truck Driver Example✦ from: Technology has always displaced jobs, but the danger this time is that the speed of AI-driven job destruction is outpacing the creation of new jobs and society's ability to retrain workers, exemplified by a 50-something truck driver whose livelihood vanishes to automation.

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