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Video · 2026-07-12 · 1h 36m · 6 moments

Why the AI’s honeymoon is ending (and tech workers are feeling it) | Noam Segal

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GUEST Noam Segal

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01
Data◆

AI has an outsized impact on how people feel about their work, splitting the tech workforce roughly in half between those who feel amplified and energized and those who feel destabilized or diminished.

Noam Segal's survey found AI's effect on professional identity dwarfs other factors like role, company, or seniority, splitting tech workers into roughly equal camps of amplified vs. destabilized/diminished.

transcript

Noam Segal: Half of the people in tech are feeling incredible, energized, amplified, excited about the technology and the future of, you know, their role. And the other half feel like the future is unclear. They feel destabilized. They feel diminished.

gives example · 1

02
Data◆

Significant burnout jumped from 44.7% to 54.7% year over year, while career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7%, despite AI capabilities improving.

Contrary to expectations that better AI tools would ease workloads, burnout rose sharply and optimism declined in the year-over-year survey data.

transcript

Noam Segal: When it comes to significant burnout, burnout that's higher than moderate, we've gone up from 44.7% in 2025 to 54.7% in 2026. So burnout is surging... And at the same time, optimism around the future of our roles and our careers is falling from 54.8% in 2025 to 48.7% in 2026.

03
Data

No group in tech—not even founders, the happiest cohort—would recommend their current role to a friend or relative entering the industry now; researchers and designers are least likely to recommend, and likelihood to recommend decreases with lower seniority.

Using an NPS-style measure, the survey found the entire tech industry sample is net-negative on recommending their own role to newcomers, with designers/researchers lowest and seniority correlating with higher (though still often negative) recommendation.

transcript

Noam Segal: What you're seeing here is that no one is a promoter of their role in tech right now. Not even founders who are by far the happiest, happy-go-lucky people in tech right now. Founders would not recommend their roles. Neither would people in sales or go to market. PMs, operations, engineering, and the worst of all, designers and researchers, my community, are the least likely to recommend their role to other people coming into tech.

04
Mechanism◆

97% of tech workers feel AI makes them better at their job, but digging deeper reveals people mean they can produce more output faster, not higher-quality output, and many report a decline in their own thinking and judgment—a 'cognitive rot.'

Segal explains that the reported 'AI makes me better' finding is misleading: workers mean higher volume, not higher quality, and many describe a corrosive effect on their independent judgment.

transcript

Noam Segal: What we heard from people were two concerning things. The first is that I can do more faster, but not better... And perhaps the even more concerning effect... is the cost of using AI on thinking and judgment. People essentially told us my brain is rotting, my work feels worse.

provides context · 2rebuts · 5supports · 2

05
Data◆

Fear of losing one's job to AI ranks second-to-last among tech workers' worries; the top fear is being expected to do more work for the same pay, followed by an unsustainable pace.

Despite the dominant narrative of AI replacing jobs, the survey found workers are far more worried about being squeezed to produce more for the same compensation and an unsustainable pace of work and learning.

transcript

Noam Segal: Losing my job to AI is actually second to last on that list. And instead, what we saw rise up to the top is the expectation to do more for the same pay. It's almost as if we're all feeling like we're being squeezed and squeeze and squeeze some more to accomplish more things in less time for the same pay.

supports · 1

06
Data

Manager effectiveness is one of the strongest levers on employee well-being: highly effective managers correlate with about 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout, yet only about a quarter of managers are rated highly effective.

Segal highlights that manager quality is one of the biggest predictors of burnout and enjoyment, but the supply of highly effective managers is scarce, making improving management the single biggest lever for retention.

transcript

Noam Segal: If you have an extremely effective manager, for example, you're reporting around 65% higher job enjoyment and dramatically lower burnout. The problem is is the the supply. Only about 25% of the sample rate their manager as highly effective and 36% of the sample rated their managers as ineffective.

Highlight slides
AI Splits Tech Workers in Two✦ from: AI has an outsized impact on how people feel about their work, splitting the tech workforce roughly in half between those who feel amplified and energized and those who feel destabilized or diminished.Why This Divide Matters✦ from: AI has an outsized impact on how people feel about their work, splitting the tech workforce roughly in half between those who feel amplified and energized and those who feel destabilized or diminished.Burnout Surges Despite Better AI Tools✦ from: Significant burnout jumped from 44.7% to 54.7% year over year, while career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7%, despite AI capabilities improving.Career Optimism Falls as Burnout Rises✦ from: Significant burnout jumped from 44.7% to 54.7% year over year, while career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7%, despite AI capabilities improving.AI Gains Haven't Eased Workforce Strain✦ from: Significant burnout jumped from 44.7% to 54.7% year over year, while career optimism fell from 54.8% to 48.7%, despite AI capabilities improving.97% Say AI Makes Them Better—But Better How?✦ from: 97% of tech workers feel AI makes them better at their job, but digging deeper reveals people mean they can produce more output faster, not higher-quality output, and many report a decline in their own thinking and judgment—a 'cognitive rot.'Faster Output, Not Higher Quality✦ from: 97% of tech workers feel AI makes them better at their job, but digging deeper reveals people mean they can produce more output faster, not higher-quality output, and many report a decline in their own thinking and judgment—a 'cognitive rot.'The Cost: 'Cognitive Rot'✦ from: 97% of tech workers feel AI makes them better at their job, but digging deeper reveals people mean they can produce more output faster, not higher-quality output, and many report a decline in their own thinking and judgment—a 'cognitive rot.'AI Job Loss Fear Ranks Near Last✦ from: Fear of losing one's job to AI ranks second-to-last among tech workers' worries; the top fear is being expected to do more work for the same pay, followed by an unsustainable pace.Workers Feel Squeezed, Not Replaced✦ from: Fear of losing one's job to AI ranks second-to-last among tech workers' worries; the top fear is being expected to do more work for the same pay, followed by an unsustainable pace.
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