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With inference revenue tracking well over $200 billion this year and Jensen Huang's once-outlandish forecasts proving conservative, the massive projected AI CapEx spend is justified by the underlying revenue trajectory.

Gavin Baker argues that inference revenue running well above $200 billion this year vindicates aggressive AI CapEx, noting Jensen Huang's supposedly bullish forecasts have actually understated real growth. ✦ AI generated

Gavin Baker · BG2 Pod · 2026-06-11 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 65:29

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Does that math math for you?

I think we end this year well over 200 billion in inference revenue, well over. And so, I think the math really maths, and I do think we have to give Jensen some credit because he said some things that seemed outlandish. He said a trillion two years ago. And I mean, he was really low.

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65:10billion? Yeah, let's call it 50%. >> I I would guess they're probably a little bit higher than that. I might say 60 or 70. But, I mean, that math starts to math, and what I would just say is I think that 300 billion is low, man. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> I just think it's low. >> From your mouth to God's >> Yeah, yeah, exactly. I think I think we

65:29end this year well over 200 billion in inference revenue, well over. And so, I think the math really maths, and I do think we have to give uh Jensen >> Yeah, our friend. >> some credit because he said some things that seemed outlandish. >> Right. >> And he was conservative. He was low. He said a trillion 2 years ago. And I mean, he was really low. >> Right.

65:51>> And so, like, let's give the guy some credit and think about what he is saying right now. >> For sure, for sure. And and listen, I would say consistently, Elon's been taking the over. Sundar's been taking the over. Sam, Dario, you know, Dario did the podcast with Dwarkesh when he was talking about country geniuses in the data center. He said that will be here by 2028. He said revenues will go into

66:16the low hundreds of billions by 2028. So, let's call that, you know, 3 400 billion of revenue by 2028. And he said that a while ago now, so he may even be revising up his number. And he said it's hard for me to see that there won't be trillions of dollars in revenue before 2030. And if you're on that revenue trajectory, if we're on a trajectory to

66:36200 by the end of this year, let's call it 4 or 500 by next year, and a path to trillion plus by 2029, then the math maths. >> And we got to keep in mind that half of the spending is there to you know, for training, maybe a little less than half. What is it, Foxy? >> It's probably that depends on the lab, but it's I would say it's increasingly

66:56less than half. >> Yes. >> Okay. So, we'll call it 35% is spending that's not revenue generating, but it's going to kind of make the next model. So, I think the math maths. >> Right. >> And there's still this prisoner's dilemma where if you opted out, that may be an existential decision. >> And I think like coming into this year, going back to this kind of what

67:12narratives were violated, you know, I think into this year everyone expected token pricing, uh the price of compute, it's all deflationary. And it will be kind of a smooth line deflationary over time. But, I think this year what we've seen is the opposite. And you know, it's all comes back to supply-demand. The demand side of the equation seems to be far outstripping the supply. Right? And I think

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