This is not a stock market bubble. Forward P/E ratios are compressing across sectors, and the market is already pricing in that AI earnings are not sustainable — that is why semiconductor stocks trade at roughly 12 times forward earnings.

23:13Goldman Charter, the forward PE multiple gap between semis and the S&P 500 is at the lowest levels of this AI era. So the market agrees. It is not contrarian to say these earnings aren't sustainable. It's not that's not uh going out on a limb. Literally that is consensus, >> right? So if the market was was valuing these things at 50 times forward earnings, you' go, okay, this is crazy.

23:36They're they think these earnings are going to continue or continue to grow or whatever, but then that's not what the market is saying, >> right? So uh Duality Research has this great chart that we've shared before. It's the distribution of forward PE ratios. So he shows the percentage of S&P 500 companies as well as the percentage of the overall market cap that trade in various buckets. So for

23:55example, Alex says that more than 300 names, 61% or 40% of the total market cap trade for a forward P that's under 20 times. So, this is the if you've been a if you've been a portfolio manager who has railed against overpriced tech stocks for years, this better be your year. >> This is like this is when you pound the table on the stock pickers market. >> I would hope so.

24:23>> Right. Because I'm sure there are people who have said for years to their clients, listen, we can't invest in this. Everyone's invested into this overconentration, overvaluation, all this stuff. This has to be your year. Has to. He has he also shows a forward P break broken broken down by sectors and just look at this basically everything is going down into the right for the most part everything is compressing

24:45with the exception of I don't know industrials are hanging high I suppose and real estate but everything for the most part forward Ps are coming in this charts >> this is like the opposite of what happens in a bubble >> these charts make it if you just showed me these charts and didn't tell me what was going on in the market I just six months ago say oh the market's rolling

25:04Yeah, >> not the market is up double digits this year. I'd say, "Oh, the market's probably down 12%." >> And this is happening with the backdrop of all-time high earnings and margins and acceleration. Like, this is not a bubble. Stop it. It might turn into one. That's not what this is. Yeah, I I tend to agree that it it the the hard thing to square is there's bubble-l like behavior in places