The two most important variables for the SpaceX IPO are how quickly it brings terrestrial data centers online and the superior operating profit per gigawatt of its xAI compute deals with Google and Anthropic.
Gavin Baker identifies two key levers for valuing SpaceX's AI business: speed of terrestrial data center buildout and the unusually high operating profit per gigawatt generated by its xAI cloud deals with Google and Anthropic. ✦ AI generated
Gavin Baker · BG2 Pod · 2026-06-11 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 2:39
“What are the key levers that we ought to be thinking about that you're thinking about over the course of the next few years?”
Clark, who I've known for many years, made a great analysis here. And he shows that XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI. Their deal actually with Anthropic also generates probably more operating profit than anyone but Anthropic.
verbatim transcript · starts at 2:39
2:19next few years? >> Sure. Um so great to be here. Thank you for having me. I thought we're going to call it B BGG B, but [laughter] we can stick with BG2. I've been your house. >> hey. All subject to revision. >> That's okay. That's okay. So I think there's two big levers or variables that I think people should focus on. And you know, I'm not going to comment on where I
2:39think um those variables go. But one is um you guys have this chart. Um did you did you post this on X? >> I did I did before and then we also included a new addition with uh XAI's new deals as well. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> So Clark, who I've known for many years, um uh made a did a great analysis here. And he shows that XAI's deal um with
3:04Google for cloud computing uh generates more operating profit per gigawatt um than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI. Uh their deal um >> [clears throat] >> actually with uh Anthropic also generates probably more operating profit than anyone but um Anthropic. And so you know, um the your your colleague at Altimeter, Freida, also she calculated a 55% IRR >> Mhm. >> on Claude's one. >> Mhm. >> You know, if you can borrow money at 6,
3:347, 8% and invest in something with a 55% ARR, I'm not the most sophisticated thinker, but that math maths. >> Right. >> And so I think the most important variable, one of the two most important, is how quickly they bring on terrestrial data centers. >> Mhm. >> We do know from Jensen that uh Elon brings data centers up faster than anyone 122 days. Speed is literally cost
3:57because every day you're paying electricians and plumbers. That's cost. And they're now monetizing them at arguably the highest rate. And so I think, you know, everybody should run their own math on that, but that is a massive variable. >> Yes. >> Truly massive variable. The second thing is, you know, we have a chart and it's wildly out of date now. It's kind of freaking amazing. This chart is I think
4:21is this chart from 10 days ago? But it like the 10 or 12 days since this chart since we made this chart which shows the Pareto curves for Opus 4.7 for coding for Codex from OpenAI. And now we've had Opus 4.8. It was already out of date. And now we have Fable >> Totally. >> and Mythos, which is freaking wild. In 10 days >> Yes. >> like we would have had to update the