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The performance gap—both open-to-closed and American-to-Chinese—has shrunk from a debated 6-9 months down to something like 3-5 months.
Nathan Lambert argues Kimi K3's release shows the open/closed and China/US capability gaps have compressed to roughly 3-5 months. ✦ AI generated
Nathan Lambert · Interconnects · 2026-07-20 · original ↗
The key fact is that either the open-to-closed or American-to-Chinese model performance gap has been reduced from the debated 6-9 months to something shorter, say 3-5 months.
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- ·Open-to-closed model gap now ~3-5 months
- ·US-to-China model gap now ~3-5 months
- ·Down from a previously debated 6-9 months
- ·Kimi K3's release signals this compression
- ·Previously debated: 6-9 month gap
- ·Now estimated: 3-5 month gap
- ·Applies to both open/closed and US/China gaps
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