The best textbooks will remain heavily crafted by humans for at least two to five years because AI currently saves only 10–20% of the effort and excels at transforming existing knowledge rather than creating its core insight.

The crux of the above paragraph and preceding section is that I would be happy if more of the world’s experts used AI models to write a tiny bit of their books in order to get more of their knowledge shared with the world. The problem is that you can only use AI models to save 10-20% of the effort today, and I don’t see that percentage becoming the majority anytime soon. There’s also the social pressure, where people expect LLMs to be the best, personalized educators out there, so they think working on a book or educational content is pointless. I think some of these opinions are aging out, as there’s a massive dearth in the highest quality educational work — and there always has been. AI is great at manipulating said content into the form that suits the student, not creating the content from scratch. In the meantime I feel that we are stuck in a frustrating local minimum, where AI models are going to on net reduce the average effort spent on non-fiction writing, but they could enable great expression. Fewer people will start and push through. So, in 2-5 years I still expect the best textbooks to be heavily crafted by the human hand. I’m not sure after then, but that’s longer than many would’ve predicted, given just how much knowledge these models have and their structural propensity to stream it.

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