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Owning a small piece of a massive outlier company today creates better venture returns than owning a large percentage of a company that exits for $300-500 million.

Matt Murphy argues the venture game has fundamentally changed — the old model of targeting 20% ownership in companies exiting at $300-500M no longer moves the needle. Firms must be in the biggest outliers to drive fund returns, even at very small ownership percentages. ✦ AI generated

Matt Murphy · 20VC · 2026-07-27 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 7:14

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do we think that ownership today is less relevant than it ever used to be given outcome scenarios being so much larger than they ever used to be?

I mean, look, if you can get ownership, it's magical because, you know, just if you own a lot and the company's worth a lot, that's going to be great. But, you know, a there's a lot, you know, more capital coming in, so it's hard to even maintain that that kind of ownership. But we're in an outlier business right now, right? Like I I think for a long time, I mean, you know, I've been in the business for 25 years now. You know, you you were kind of saying like, 'Hey, great outcomes are 300 million, 500 million, a billion.' Like, so you're like, 'Hey, you have to own 20% to get a to get a 100 million or or whatever.' Like, no, that's not those are like, and I know you talk about it a lot on your, you know, show with Rory and Jason, all that. That's that's not how the game is being played anymore. It's it's like you have to be in the big outliers to drive great returns and you're better off being in them at a very small percent than owning a large percent of a company that exits for 3 to 500. Those just aren't going to move the needle.

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6:55you know, you kind of get into these situations where we have to own 15 or 20% ownership or we don't do this and don't do that. And I think the new Menllo that I'm part of has shown extreme flexibility to just do what makes sense. Let's get in this great company because once you're in, hey, if it takes off, there's plenty of opportunity to put more capital in.

7:14So, do we think that ownership today is less relevant than it ever used to be given outcome scenarios being so much larger than they ever used to be? By far. I mean, look, if you can get ownership, it's magical because, you know, just if you own a lot and the company's worth a lot, that's going to be great. But, you know, a there's a lot, you know, more capital coming in,

7:37so it's hard to even maintain that that kind of ownership. But we're in an outlier business right now, right? Like I I think for a long time, I mean, you know, I've been in the business for 25 years now. You know, you you were kind of saying like, "Hey, great outcomes are 300 million, 500 million, a billion." Like, so you're like, "Hey, you have to own 20% to get a to get a 100 million or

7:58or whatever." Like, no, that's not those those are like, and I know you talk about it a lot on your, you know, show with Rory and Jason, all that. That's that's not how the game is being played anymore. It's it's like you have to be in the big outliers to drive great returns and you're better off being in them at a very small percent than owning a large percent of a company that exits

8:18for 3 to 500. Those just aren't going to move the needle. >> Is there a stage where price does matter for you? >> Well, I mean, we don't, you know, we we we announced our our new funds, so we're not, you know, we're we're pretty full stack. We can take big concentrated positions. Fortunately, we've got LPs who like to co-invest with us, but you know, we don't have a 10 or$20 billion

8:39fund, nor do we aspire to have that. So, there's some quantum of capital that's like, hey, that that's for somebody else, the the the next next round. But I don't I don't know that it's as much of a valuation thing. I think it's more cuz I would rather, you know, to be in the most amazing company. I would rather be in than not. >> Before we move to SPVS, new funds, you

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