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PredictionVideo · 8:34 — 9:18

Given the US regulatory environment, a great American open-source competitor will arise — at least one multi-hundred-billion or trillion-dollar American company focused on American-first open source.

Anastasios predicts a huge American open-source company will emerge because, while Chinese models may play a role now, the US regulatory environment favors a domestic champion. The durable business model combines open-source models as a lead-generation tool with deployed engineering for AI modernization. ✦ AI generated

Anastasios · 20VC · 2026-08-03 · original ↗

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Do you think they will really use open-source Chinese models to do that?

I think not. I think that the Chinese models will be potentially part of the story for now. Um, but that given the regulatory environment in the US, it's probably more likely in the long run that we see a great American open-source competitor arise. And this is why I've been a strong proponent, for example, of thinking machines. I believe that we're going to have at least one massive, you know, multiundred billion if not trillion dollar American company focused on American first open source.

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8:34strong proponent, for example, of thinking machines. I believe that we're going to have at least one massive, you know, multiundred billion if not trillion dollar American company focused on American first open source. Why have we not so far? I I really hope so too by the way. I completely agree. Would love to see that. But why haven't we why has the US open community lag behind so

8:57meaningfully? Well, frankly, I think it's a business model question. You know, I think that people have not really figured out up until this point what the business model is for open source and now I think people are wisening up to it. There's a few different ways of going about it. One way of doing it is to say, I'm going to do a rev share. I'm going to take this

9:17open source model. I'm going to allow inference providers like a fireworks or together whatever to deploy um this model and then if they get to overx dollars in revenue, I'm going to ask to do a revenue share. And that is one way of building a sustainable company off of open source. You basically share in the compute revenue. Another way of doing it which is I think the more misstral thinking

9:41machines type of strategy is to take the open-source model and then use it as uh a lead generation tool for companies to build on top of that and then come to you and say can you help us fine-tune can you help us with our AI strategy? And then you do the for deployed engineer and that is actually a huge market because if you think about it one

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