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Frontier AI deployment paradigms (defense-in-depth safeguards, iterative deployment) have worked well so far, but nobody knows if or when they will break, and they could break at the worst possible moments.

Nathan argues that while iterative deployment and layered safeguards have worked so far for both OpenAI and Anthropic, there's no guarantee these paradigms won't fail right at a critical, high-stakes moment. ✦ AI generated

Nathan · The Cognitive Revolution · 2026-07-02 · original ↗

starts at this moment · 16:50

We're kind of riding these paradigms that have worked well so far and we just don't know if and when they might break and if they do break it might they might be breaking at kind of critical times which is a strange juaposition on on multiple different levels.

verbatim transcript · starts at 16:50

Transcript · around this moment

16:50We're kind of riding these paradigms that have worked well so far and we just don't know if and when they might break and if they do break it might they might be breaking at kind of critical times which is a strange juaposition on on multiple different levels. People talk about that all the time of course with alignment but I think it extends to these defense in-depth safeguards and it it

17:16def I would you know at the highest level it kind of extends to the whole uh iterative deployment model. So as always confusing um but selfishly I'm glad to have it back that's for sure and I am excited to check out uh 5.6 as well. I feel like it's probably going to be for multiple reasons. One, obviously, they're going to start charging. We'll see. I mean, I kind of expect it's going

17:44to be interesting to watch Anthropic dance around limits and usage because OpenAI is going to offer a ton more tokens, it seems, with 5.6 at their $200 price point than Anthropic is going to be offering for Fable with their $200 price point. As of now, from what we have seen with the the relaunch, it goes until July 7 on this preview access basis and then you have to pay

18:14the API rates and that's going to be order of magnitude, you know, maybe maybe more than an order of magnitude more expensive than 5.6 tokens. >> Yeah. >> If you have the pro subscription. So, it's going to be interesting to watch how they manage that. I would I would bet that Fable comes back to the Claude Max subscription. It seems just very hard for them to have no Fable

18:44there. That would that would make CHBT Pro, I think, just a better product for a lot of people. >> Yeah. >> And I don't think they want that. So, I think they're going to want to have some access to their top model in that bundle, >> but you know, it'll depend on how they they've obviously got their limits and they've got to destroy demand to uh clear their own market. And so, it might

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