Dan Schwarz observes that Fable's explanations feel denser and more jargon-packed than other frontier models, describing it as the 'shoggoth' showing through the mask and predicting this alien quality will keep increasing. ✦ AI generated
Dan Schwarz · The Cognitive Revolution · 2026-07-07 · original ↗
starts at this moment · 94:41
the way that fable explains things is a little bit alien to the way that I find opus or gd55 explaining things it's very concise I would say like it's very the sentences are shorter and full of jargon it feels like it's compressing more information into a sentence than humans normally do and to me this is starting starting to get this the shog is kind of showing from behind the mask like the alien intelligence is a little bit more alien now than it was a month ago
verbatim transcript · starts at 94:41
94:31do we get into the future? >> Yeah, that is a great question. Uh David Mannheim actually just uh posted a tweet that has a graph that has a claim to estimate this that I was meaning to dig into because I don't know where those lines are coming from. Um I would say without evidence behind this my sense is very Ukowskian like I think there is a lot of detail in reality that is far
94:54beyond the human mind to understand and as you approach more sophisticated intelligence you will start seeing a lot of patterns um and then the point of trying to produce you know voxal perfect weather three weeks in the future is further away than people think. I think there's quite a lot of room. Um, human super forecasters don't tend to agree with me on this. They basically think that what they're doing is somewhat near
95:18optimal and any sort of accuracy improvements you're going to get over them is going to be tiny and like hard to understand. And I think that's just because we only really understand human intelligence. And when you kind of just zoom out from an information theory perspective, from like a Kolamor of complexity, like just modeling the world as bite strings, uh, the AI overlords will eventually start to figure out
95:38stuff that is totally beyond humans to notice. Uh but there's no way to prove this. Um my sense is that we will start to see it over the next year as the AIs will just get more and more accurate compared to humans in a way that humans don't even really understand. You you'll look at the rationale of the forecast. It's like five paragraphs of dense reasoning and then a surprising
95:56conclusion and it will just not really make sense, but it'll just turn out to be really accurate and we will start to like understand it less and less as time goes on. Mhm. >> Do you think that's related to other modalities? Something I've been obsessed with for probably the last two years is the fact that models are capable of learning a sort of intuitive physics in a lot of different spaces from protein
96:25folding to material science. You know, what's the band gap going to be if we have, you know, this particular superh or semiconductor recipe, whatever, right? There's just this sort of strange the alien nature of these problem spaces from the human sensory perception that models trained on like the raw data or in many cases the simulation data just seem to overcome. And I'm wondering if you think that's